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UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer
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IA JP Adesanya vs PyferMain Card · Middleweight AG MB Grasso vs BarberMain Card · Women'S Flyweight JE LD Erosa vs DouglasMain Card · Featherweight MA YB Abdul-Malik vs BelgarouiMain Card · Middleweight TM KN McKinney vs NelsonMain Card · Lightweight IB TM Bahamondes vs MusayevPreliminary Card · Lightweight CH LJ Hooper vs Gibson Jr.Preliminary Card · Lightweight MT TF Tybura vs FortunePreliminary Card · Heavyweight CO GF O'Neill vs FernandesPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight NS BL Stirling vs LopesPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight RS AY Simón vs YañezPreliminary Card · Bantamweight AT BB Thainara vs BrasilPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight MC NP Chiesa vs PriceMain Card · Welterweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Chiesa v Price Welterweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus127 picks · conf 99/99
Chiesa 113
14 Price
CKPMSI pick Chiesa
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Chiesa 19-7 VS 16-10 Price
6'1" height 6'0"
171 lb weight 171 lb
76" reach 76"
38 age 36
Southpaw stance Orthodox
1.9 strikes landed / min 5.2
40% striking accuracy 42%
1.7 strikes absorbed / min 5.6
53% striking defence 48%
3.4 takedowns / 15 min 1.0
51% takedown accuracy 29%
60% takedown defence 52%
1.0 submissions / 15 min 0.7
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
CM CornerTalk MMA picks Niko Price “I'NOT_IN_ROSTER_103 gonna pick Niko Price. I think Niko Price is just more dangerous on feet.”
MM MASKED MMA picks Michael Chiesa “Michael Chiesa is going to land some awkward jabs on him.”
CM Crashout MMA picks Michael Chiesa VALUE “Michael Chiesa is think he's going to KO Niko Price.”
IM Industry Plant MMA picks Michael Chiesa VALUE “I got Michael Chiesa as lock of the card ... Michael Chiesa should just take him down and easily sub him. I I got Michael Chiesa by submission. And this is easily lock of the card.”
DS DFS Army - Daily Fantasy Sports picks Michael Chiesa “I'm picking Michael Chiesa because I don't I'm clearly picking Michael Chiesa uh you know uh that he's losing lately. Um, Michael Chiesa I think Michael Chiesa's going to win”
PI PibbleMMA picks Niko Price VALUE “I need Niko Price to win.”
CE CeilingMMA picks Michael Chiesa VALUE “I'm going to go with Michael Chiesa by decision.”
BN By The Numbers picks Michael Chiesa “Michael Chiesa's really tough. Almost put Duncan. Michael Chiesa's hard to beat. ... Knocked out Niko Price.”
DM DMan&MariPulls picks Michael Chiesa “We're going with Michael Chiesa on this one.” $1.11
CO CouchWarrior1 picks Michael Chiesa “I believe that he's going to win this first round submission.”
CR Capitán Rafucho picks Michael Chiesa VALUE “I'll give Michael Chiesa submission round number two against Niko Price”
NA NarcoCopMMA picks Michael Chiesa VALUE “Give me Michael Chiesa to win by KO”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Chiesa19-7
W Price Submission · R1 Mar '26
W McGee Decision · R3 Jun '25
W Griffin Submission · R3 Dec '24
W Ferguson Submission · R1 Aug '24
L Holland Submission · R1 Jul '23
Price16-10
L Chiesa Submission · R1 Mar '26
L Veretennikov KO/TKO · R1 Feb '26
L Smith Submission · R2 Jun '25
L Gorimbo Decision · R3 Oct '24
W Morono Decision · R3 Jun '24