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BEST PRICE Prophecy read McKinney v Nelson Lightweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus155 picks · conf 99/99
McKinney 115
40 Nelson
SIDTWF pick McKinney
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
McKinney 17-8 VS 17-6-1 Nelson
5'10" height 5'11"
156 lb weight 155 lb
74" reach 71"
31 age 35
Switch stance Switch
4.5 strikes landed / min 2.7
50% striking accuracy 44%
2.6 strikes absorbed / min 3.6
45% striking defence 61%
3.5 takedowns / 15 min 2.5
36% takedown accuracy 31%
85% takedown defence 56%
1.0 submissions / 15 min 1.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
IM IJB MMA picks Kyle Nelson “I'm switching back to Kyle Nelson by knockout round two.”
CM CornerTalk MMA picks Terrance McKinney “I think this is Terrance McKinney's fight to win. Go out there and get it done.”
MM MASKED MMA picks Terrance McKinney “I'm going with Terrance McKinney.”
IM Industry Plant MMA picks Terrance McKinney VALUE “This is the lock. ... I think McKenna is going to knock him out ... I see McKenna just going out there and flatlining Nelson early.”
BN By The Numbers picks Kyle Nelson VALUE “McKenna's never gone to a decision. Never gone to a decision... He'll latch up a he'll like drop a drop a guillotine or get a Dar choke or something like that... He wins two, loses one. Wins two, loses one... round one submission.”
DM DMan&MariPulls picks Terrance McKinney “we're going with Terrance McKinney on this one.” $1.51
AN AntUFC picks Terrance McKinney VALUE “I'm going to go with Terrance McKinney”
CO CouchWarrior1 picks Terrance McKinney “I'm going to go KO Terrance McKinney first round.”
US Uselyis picks Terrance McKinney VALUE $1.56
PT Premier TV picks Kyle Nelson “I like Kyle Kyle Nelson's line of 160.” $1.62
DY DylanMMA picks Terrance McKinney “I'NOT_IN_ROSTER_35 going to go with Terrance McKinney by round one finish because it's a Terrance McKinney fight.”
BM Bozing MMA picks Terrance McKinney “I'm gonna go knockout. I'll go knockout for this one. I think Terrance McKinney wins by first round TKO.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
McKinney17-8
W Nelson KO/TKO · R1 Mar '26
L Duncan Submission · R1 Dec '25
W Borshchev Submission · R1 Jun '25
W Hadžović KO/TKO · R1 Feb '25
L Ribovics KO/TKO · R1 May '24
Nelson17-6-1
L McKinney KO/TKO · R1 Mar '26
W Frevola Decision · R3 Oct '25
L Garcia KO/TKO · R1 Sep '24
W Algeo KO/TKO · R1 Mar '24
W Padilla Decision · R3 Sep '23