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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Buckley v Thompson
Welterweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Buckley 21-7
VS
17-8-1 Thompson
5'10"
height
6'0"
171 lb
weight
170 lb
76"
reach
75"
32
age
43
Southpaw
stance
Orthodox
4.1
strikes landed / min
4.1
36%
striking accuracy
46%
3.2
strikes absorbed / min
3.0
57%
striking defence
55%
2.0
takedowns / 15 min
0.2
46%
takedown accuracy
41%
69%
takedown defence
63%
0.0
submissions / 15 min
0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
ST
Stephen Wonderboy Thompson picks Joaquin Buckley
“against Joaquin Buckley and of course you like walking Joaquin Buckley”
Stephen Wonderboy Thompson picks Joaquin Buckley
“against Joaquin Buckley and of course you like walking Joaquin Buckley”
RU
RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Joaquin Buckley
“my pick is Joaquin Buckley”
RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Joaquin Buckley
“my pick is Joaquin Buckley”
ES
etoft21 sports picks Joaquin Buckley VALUE
“I did Joaquin Buckley plus money um I did Joaquin Buckley plus money um I did Joaquin Buckley parlayed up with Ryan Spann”
etoft21 sports picks Joaquin Buckley VALUE
“I did Joaquin Buckley plus money um I did Joaquin Buckley plus money um I did Joaquin Buckley parlayed up with Ryan Spann”
TD
The Rambling Dad picks Joaquin Buckley
“going with Joaquin Buckley mdan I'm going with Joaquin Buckley as well”
The Rambling Dad picks Joaquin Buckley
“going with Joaquin Buckley mdan I'm going with Joaquin Buckley as well”
CP
Capper Comparison Picks picks Joaquin Buckley
“gonna go with Joe Queen Joaquin Buckley and I'NOT_IN_ROSTER_44 pretty confident as well”
Capper Comparison Picks picks Joaquin Buckley
“gonna go with Joe Queen Joaquin Buckley and I'NOT_IN_ROSTER_44 pretty confident as well”
EM
Elijah House MMA picks Joaquin Buckley
“I do think Joaquin Buckley takes it I just think he's younger and sharper”
Elijah House MMA picks Joaquin Buckley
“I do think Joaquin Buckley takes it I just think he's younger and sharper”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Stephen Thompson VALUE
“number five I'm probably saying Stephen Thompson Stephen Thompson Thompson Joaquin Buckley Buckley”
MMA EXPERTS picks Stephen Thompson VALUE
“number five I'm probably saying Stephen Thompson Stephen Thompson Thompson Joaquin Buckley Buckley”
KU
Kunath picks Joaquin Buckley VALUE
“Mario Bautista who I like this week”
Kunath picks Joaquin Buckley VALUE
“Mario Bautista who I like this week”
DS
Dynes Sports picks Stephen Thompson VALUE
“have the side with Stephen Thompson here at this 150 160 on Stephen Thompson I'm right there with”
$2.50
Dynes Sports picks Stephen Thompson VALUE
“have the side with Stephen Thompson here at this 150 160 on Stephen Thompson I'm right there with”
$2.50
UP
UFC FIGHT PASS picks Stephen Thompson
“Stephen Thompson knocks NOT_IN_ROSTER_11 NOT_IN_ROSTER_12 out”
UFC FIGHT PASS picks Stephen Thompson
“Stephen Thompson knocks NOT_IN_ROSTER_11 NOT_IN_ROSTER_12 out”
DR
DRYWALL picks Stephen Thompson VALUE
“this is my fight of the night I think that this is the most intriguing fight ... we flip-flopped ... Dan did not want to fight the good fight any longer ... I I don't avow I do not AOW this one ... AOW okay all right doing okay let's go let's go talk to the elders about how whatever you don't that's kind of blasphemous to make up more English no I'm the I'm the guy told us what to say I run to the elders as soon as I get any sort of push back from anybody”
DRYWALL picks Stephen Thompson VALUE
“this is my fight of the night I think that this is the most intriguing fight ... we flip-flopped ... Dan did not want to fight the good fight any longer ... I I don't avow I do not AOW this one ... AOW okay all right doing okay let's go let's go talk to the elders about how whatever you don't that's kind of blasphemous to make up more English no I'm the I'm the guy told us what to say I run to the elders as soon as I get any sort of push back from anybody”
DR
DRYWALL picks Joaquin Buckley VALUE
“I think he does because to the over he knew ... I think Joaquin Buckley is a smart fighter even though he Peak controller button mashes some ... I think he's getting a little bit more controlled with every fight too”
DRYWALL picks Joaquin Buckley VALUE
“I think he does because to the over he knew ... I think Joaquin Buckley is a smart fighter even though he Peak controller button mashes some ... I think he's getting a little bit more controlled with every fight too”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Buckley21-7
L
Brady
May '26
L
Usman
Jun '25
W
Covington
Dec '24
W
Thompson
Oct '24
W
Ruziboev
May '24
Thompson17-8-1
L
Bonfim
Jul '25
L
Buckley
Oct '24
L
Rakhmonov
Dec '23
W
Holland
Dec '22
L
Muhammad
Dec '21