MMA Prophecy
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UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Ruffy v Llontop Catchweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus58 picks · conf 72/99
Ruffy 52
6 Llontop
TFKHCU pick Ruffy
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Ruffy 13-2 VS 14-5 Llontop
5'11" height 6'0"
155 lb weight 166 lb
75" reach 73"
30 age 26
Orthodox stance Orthodox
2.5 strikes landed / min 5.6
49% striking accuracy 41%
2.4 strikes absorbed / min 4.1
49% striking defence 57%
0.5 takedowns / 15 min 0.0
30% takedown accuracy 0%
69% takedown defence 54%
0.7 submissions / 15 min 0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
GP Greedo Plays picks James Llontop VALUE “give me the Lakers to dominate the Pelicans here”
BS B ALL N Sports picks Maurício Ruffy “I am gonna side with the heavy favorite in rufy”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Maurício Ruffy “I'm picking Maurício Ruffy... easy pick Maurício Ruffy”
DR DRYWALL picks Maurício Ruffy VALUE “I'm taking Maurício Ruffy ruy by KO or not TKO whatever it may be round agnostic”
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Maurício Ruffy “my subscribers and I went with maricio rufi” $1.13
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Maurício Ruffy “I hope Maurício Ruffy absolutely wrecks his [__] shot”
CO CombatOddsHQ picks Maurício Ruffy VALUE “I'm on a small shot on Maurício Ruffy at plus 215” $3.15
KI Kevin Iole picks Maurício Ruffy “we think very highly of him and we were talking to him this week”
SB SouthernTea Boxing-MMA & Sports Betting picks Maurício Ruffy “Maurício Ruffy for the win probably first round knockout or something like that”
JC Jack Cassell picks Maurício Ruffy “I'm going to go with this guy for three reasons one Conor MC two 900 favorite three fighting nerds he's going to knock him out”
AD All-Star DFS picks James Llontop VALUE “if I am to take a shot in any of these uh 6K Fighters it would probably be on top”
AD All-Star DFS picks Maurício Ruffy “I think this line is nonsense I don't get how how you you bet Maurício Maurício Ruffy at minus 900” $1.11
Recent form last five, most recent first
Ruffy13-2
W Chandler KO/TKO · R1 Jun '26
W Fiziev KO/TKO · R2 Feb '26
L Denis Submission · R2 Sep '25
W Green KO/TKO · R1 Mar '25
W Llontop Decision · R3 Nov '24
Llontop14-5
L Ruffy Decision · R3 Nov '24
L Borshchev Decision · R3 Aug '24
L Padilla Submission · R1 Apr '24