MMA Prophecy
🌐BEST
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
Choose a fight to analyse
JJ SM Jones vs MiocicMain Card · Heavyweight CO MC Oliveira vs ChandlerMain Card · Lightweight BN PC Nickal vs CraigMain Card · Middleweight VA KS Araújo vs SilvaMain Card · Women'S Flyweight MR JL Ruffy vs LlontopMain Card · Catchweight MM JM McGhee vs MartinezPreliminary Card · Bantamweight JM DJ Miller vs JacksonPreliminary Card · Lightweight DO RR Onama vs RomeroPreliminary Card · Lightweight MT JD Tybura vs DinizPreliminary Card · Heavyweight RB MG Brahimaj vs GallEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight OE BH Elliott vs HafezEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight EM VH Moura vs HardyEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Jones v Miocic Heavyweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker
Consensus212 picks · conf 99/99
Jones 167
45 Miocic
TMADMT pick Jones
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Jones 28-1 VS 20-5 Miocic
6'4" height 6'4"
238 lb weight 249 lb
85" reach 80"
38 age 43
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.4 strikes landed / min 4.7
52% striking accuracy 52%
2.2 strikes absorbed / min 4.0
61% striking defence 52%
2.1 takedowns / 15 min 1.7
43% takedown accuracy 34%
95% takedown defence 65%
0.6 submissions / 15 min 0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
GP Greedo Plays picks Jon Jones VALUE “Jon Jones obviously the gamewinner in that Mavericks game”
12 12Coffees picks Stipe Miocic “Pero va a ganar John Jones va a ganar Stipe Miocic”
12 12Coffees picks Jon Jones “siento que va a ganar Jon Jones pero me gustaría que ganara es Stipe Miocic”
PP Pick Pocket Podcast picks Jon Jones VALUE “Jon Jones by submission or decision double chance method of Victory minus 110 odds”
GP Greedo Plays picks Jon Jones “it's Jon Jones okay John Collins has stepped up”
UP UFC FIGHT PASS picks Jon Jones VALUE $1.16
BS B ALL N Sports picks Jon Jones “I am GNA take Jon Jones in this one”
FL Fight Lab picks Jon Jones VALUE “I think Jon Jones gets it done”
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Jon Jones “my subscribers and I went with Jon Jones” $1.15
EM Elijah House MMA picks Jon Jones VALUE “Jon Jones is returned but going Jon Jones”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Jon Jones “prediction Jon Jon Jones is my pick to win”
JW Josh Wisse picks Jon Jones “Jon Jones will win this fight” $1.15
Recent form last five, most recent first
Jones28-1
W Miocic KO/TKO · R3 Nov '24
W Gane Submission · R1 Mar '23
W Reyes Decision · R5 Feb '20
W Santos Decision · R5 Jul '19
W Smith Decision · R5 Mar '19
Miocic20-5
L Jones KO/TKO · R3 Nov '24
L Ngannou KO/TKO · R2 Mar '21
W Cormier Decision · R5 Aug '20
W Cormier KO/TKO · R4 Aug '19
L Cormier KO/TKO · R1 Jul '18