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UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Nurmagomedov v Figueiredo Catchweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus283 picks · conf 99/99
Nurmagomedov 246
37 Figueiredo
OKMCCI pick Nurmagomedov
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Nurmagomedov 19-1 VS 25-6-1 Figueiredo
5'8" height 5'5"
136 lb weight 138 lb
69" reach 68"
30 age 38
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.5 strikes landed / min 4.2
63% striking accuracy 44%
1.4 strikes absorbed / min 4.7
63% striking defence 46%
4.0 takedowns / 15 min 2.2
50% takedown accuracy 37%
100% takedown defence 58%
0.4 submissions / 15 min 1.2
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
MA Mustafa Abutair picks Deiveson Figueiredo VALUE “I could even see Omar finishing him in two rounds on the ground with ground and pound dooror submission.”
FI FightCircuit picks Umar Nurmagomedov VALUE “I think Umar Nurmagomedov is going to end up sitting on NOT_IN_ROSTER_7 for a victoff with Arnold Allen”
KM Keep it a Buck Media picks Umar Nurmagomedov
LI liltoaster picks Umar Nurmagomedov “I'm gonna go Umar Nurmagomedov.”
LI liltoaster picks Deiveson Figueiredo “I'm going with Deiveson Figueiredo because he kind of looks like Chris Michael Johnson.”
FI FIGHTBLOODLINE picks Umar Nurmagomedov “I think Umar is going to dominate this fight wrestling for three rounds.”
CO CouchWarrior1 picks Umar Nurmagomedov “I think he's only going to win this by points... it's by points it's by points”
TP The Touch Gloves Podcast picks Deiveson Figueiredo VALUE “I am going to predict an Umar, either an Umar decision or an Umar submission.”
BS Betting Weekly Studios picks Umar Nurmagomedov “probably take Umar Nurmagomedov by sub”
MM MMAFightingonSBN picks Umar Nurmagomedov “it's going to be a long day for Deiveson Figueiredo.”
SP SportsLine picks Umar Nurmagomedov “Look, I love Umar Nurmagomedov in I've seen Umar Nurmagomedov as high as a 16 Umar Nurmagomedov by knockout and Umar Nurmagomedov off trains with Islam”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Umar Nurmagomedov VALUE “I plus 190 because Umar Nurmagomedov by submission is yeah, I like Umar Nurmagomedov to win looking at Umar Nurmagomedov inside the distance” $2.90
Recent form last five, most recent first
Nurmagomedov19-1
W Figueiredo Decision · R3 Jan '26
W Bautista Decision · R3 Oct '25
L Dvalishvili Decision · R5 Jan '25
W Sandhagen Decision · R5 Aug '24
W Almakhan Decision · R3 Mar '24
Figueiredo25-6-1
L Yadong Submission · R2 May '26
L Nurmagomedov Decision · R3 Jan '26
W Jackson Decision · R3 Oct '25
L Sandhagen KO/TKO · R2 May '25
L Yan Decision · R5 Nov '24