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Cortes-Acosta vs LewisMain Card · Heavyweight
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Allen vs SilvaMain Card · Featherweight
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Krylov vs BukauskasPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Gaethje v Pimblett
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Gaethje 27-5
VS
23-3 Pimblett
5'11"
height
5'10"
155 lb
weight
155 lb
70"
reach
73"
37
age
31
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
7.4
strikes landed / min
4.9
57%
striking accuracy
53%
5.8
strikes absorbed / min
3.8
54%
striking defence
40%
0.7
takedowns / 15 min
0.9
34%
takedown accuracy
25%
68%
takedown defence
52%
0.2
submissions / 15 min
2.1
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
MA
Mustafa Abutair picks Paddy Pimblett VALUE
“I can see Paddy Pimblett finishing him on the ground. Whether it's TKO, whether he hurts him on the feet then submits him. ... I think Paddy Pimblett goes out there and gets his thing. Get he does his thing, gets his hand raised.”
Mustafa Abutair picks Paddy Pimblett VALUE
“I can see Paddy Pimblett finishing him on the ground. Whether it's TKO, whether he hurts him on the feet then submits him. ... I think Paddy Pimblett goes out there and gets his thing. Get he does his thing, gets his hand raised.”
IM
Industry Plant MMA picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“you taking Justin Gaethje down”
Industry Plant MMA picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“you taking Justin Gaethje down”
FI
FightCircuit picks Paddy Pimblett VALUE
“I've got Paddy Pimblett this one by submission”
FightCircuit picks Paddy Pimblett VALUE
“I've got Paddy Pimblett this one by submission”
FI
FightCircuit picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“I've got Paddy Pimblett this one by submission”
FightCircuit picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“I've got Paddy Pimblett this one by submission”
UC
UFC - CELEBRITIES AND CLASSICS picks Paddy Pimblett
“I placed the bet on Paddy Pimblett. So there is no mysterious coming I have Paddy Pimblett to win in that main event.”
UFC - CELEBRITIES AND CLASSICS picks Paddy Pimblett
“I placed the bet on Paddy Pimblett. So there is no mysterious coming I have Paddy Pimblett to win in that main event.”
LI
liltoaster picks Justin Gaethje
“Riley, who are you picking? Justin Gaethje. Okay, that's who I'm picking.”
liltoaster picks Justin Gaethje
“Riley, who are you picking? Justin Gaethje. Okay, that's who I'm picking.”
LI
liltoaster picks Paddy Pimblett
“Paddy Pimblett, bro. Paddy Pimblett. He's just better.”
liltoaster picks Paddy Pimblett
“Paddy Pimblett, bro. Paddy Pimblett. He's just better.”
FI
FIGHTBLOODLINE picks Justin Gaethje
“Uh you know I'm going with Justin Gaethje of course.”
FIGHTBLOODLINE picks Justin Gaethje
“Uh you know I'm going with Justin Gaethje of course.”
PP
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Paddy Pimblett VALUE
“I'm going with Justin. Justin got to win this fight.”
$2.90
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Paddy Pimblett VALUE
“I'm going with Justin. Justin got to win this fight.”
$2.90
CO
CouchWarrior1 picks Paddy Pimblett
“I've got Paddy Pimblett I got Paddy Pimblett I got Paddy Pimblett winning this by a finish probably either ground and pound or a rear naked choke.”
CouchWarrior1 picks Paddy Pimblett
“I've got Paddy Pimblett I got Paddy Pimblett I got Paddy Pimblett winning this by a finish probably either ground and pound or a rear naked choke.”
JA
Javianfighttalk picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“Justin Gaethje winning this. I think think I'm going to go with Justin Gaethje”
Javianfighttalk picks Justin Gaethje VALUE
“Justin Gaethje winning this. I think think I'm going to go with Justin Gaethje”
TP
The Touch Gloves Podcast picks Paddy Pimblett VALUE
“I'm going to have to lean with Patty Pimpblelet here.”
The Touch Gloves Podcast picks Paddy Pimblett VALUE
“I'm going to have to lean with Patty Pimpblelet here.”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Gaethje27-5
W
Topuria
Jun '26
W
Pimblett
Jan '26
W
Fiziev
Mar '25
L
Holloway
Apr '24
W
Poirier
Jul '23
Pimblett23-3
L
Gaethje
Jan '26
W
Chandler
Apr '25
W
Green
Jul '24
W
Ferguson
Dec '23
W
Gordon
Dec '22