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UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
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JG PP Gaethje vs PimblettMain Card · Lightweight SO SY O'Malley vs YadongMain Card · Bantamweight WC DL Cortes-Acosta vs LewisMain Card · Heavyweight AA JS Allen vs SilvaMain Card · Featherweight NK MB Krylov vs BukauskasPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight UN DF Nurmagomedov vs FigueiredoPreliminary Card · Catchweight AP CJ Perez vs JohnsonPreliminary Card · Catchweight NS RN Silva vs NamajunasMain Card · Women'S Flyweight JH DF Hokit vs FreemanEarly Preliminary Card · Heavyweight AG AP Gautier vs PulyaevPreliminary Card · Middleweight AF TM Fugitt vs MillerEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Cortes-Acosta v Lewis Heavyweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus312 picks · conf 99/99
Cortes-Acosta 180
132 Lewis
LDWMCC pick Cortes-Acosta
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Cortes-Acosta 17-2 VS 29-13 Lewis
6'4" height 6'3"
262 lb weight 265 lb
78" reach 79"
34 age 41
Orthodox stance Orthodox
5.9 strikes landed / min 2.5
65% striking accuracy 50%
2.2 strikes absorbed / min 2.5
52% striking defence 40%
2.3 takedowns / 15 min 0.6
69% takedown accuracy 26%
63% takedown defence 52%
0.5 submissions / 15 min 0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
MA Mustafa Abutair picks Derrick Lewis VALUE “I think Derrick Lewis gets it done at the end of the first round, but it's heavyweight, so who the [ __ ] knows at the end of the day? ... I think Derrick Lewis gets a highlight finish.”
FI FightCircuit picks Waldo Cortes-Acosta VALUE “I got Derrick Lewis sweating by knockout. I think it's going to be a bad one.”
UC UFC - CELEBRITIES AND CLASSICS picks Waldo Cortes-Acosta “I think Waldo Cortes-Acosta wins Derrick Lewis.”
KM Keep it a Buck Media picks Waldo Cortes-Acosta
LI liltoaster picks Waldo Cortes-Acosta “I'm going with Waldo Cortes-Acosta.”
LI liltoaster picks Derrick Lewis “He chose He chose Derrick Lewis.”
FI FIGHTBLOODLINE picks Derrick Lewis “No, Derrick Lewis is gonna knock him out cold.”
BI BigMoneyMMA picks Derrick Lewis “I'm going to go with Derrick Lewis... I could just see Derrick Lewis going in there fluking a uppercut in close in the clinch in the middle of the cage and then just just knocking out Waldo...”
CO CouchWarrior1 picks Derrick Lewis “So, I'm going to go I'm going the black beast. I'm going.”
JA Javianfighttalk picks Derrick Lewis VALUE “Derrick Lewis deserves why in a Derrick Lewis fight.”
FF Frozen Fists picks Derrick Lewis VALUE “Derrick Lewis looks [__] good right count Derrick Lewis out, bro.”
TP The Touch Gloves Podcast picks Waldo Cortes-Acosta VALUE “I'm picking Waldo Cortez Aosta to win on Saturday night.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Cortes-Acosta17-2
L Volkov Decision · R3 May '26
W Lewis KO/TKO · R2 Jan '26
W Gaziev KO/TKO · R1 Nov '25
W Delija KO/TKO · R1 Nov '25
L Pavlovich Decision · R3 Aug '25
Lewis29-13
L Hokit KO/TKO · R2 Jun '26
L Cortes-Acosta KO/TKO · R2 Jan '26
W Teixeira KO/TKO · R1 Jul '25
W Nascimento KO/TKO · R3 May '24
L Almeida Decision · R5 Nov '23