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UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Almeida v Razak Alhassan Middleweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus55 picks · conf 71/99
Almeida 41
14 Razak Alhassan
TMBOAN pick Almeida
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Almeida 6-1 VS 12-6 Razak Alhassan
6'1" height 5'10"
185 lb weight 185 lb
74" reach 73"
38 age 40
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.1 strikes landed / min 3.6
57% striking accuracy 49%
2.2 strikes absorbed / min 4.0
47% striking defence 55%
0.0 takedowns / 15 min 0.9
0% takedown accuracy 38%
57% takedown defence 51%
0.3 submissions / 15 min 0.2
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
MA MMA Attic picks César Almeida “the model heavily favors César Almeida so we placed a wager on him at minus 280” $1.36
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks César Almeida “I got César Almeida”
MA MMA Attic picks César Almeida “and the model is leaning heavily to César Almeida at over 60%”
CA ContraGolpe - Analisa picks César Almeida “vou de César Almeida vencendo por decisão”
AM Ain't No Way MMA picks César Almeida “I don't think César Almeida has aged well and gracefully into the UFC ... his grappling is really bad and I I can't see a world where Abdul Rak alhassan doesn't mix up the grappling the Striking and then catches them maybe with a knee or really hard head kick I think that's his path to Victory”
MM Mayor MMA picks César Almeida “therefore I don't think he's going to win”
LE LAS 8 ESQUINAS picks Abdul Razak Alhassan VALUE “siento que va a poder el ruso” $1.39
ME MMA EXPERTS picks César Almeida VALUE “the pick is going to be César Almeida” $1.40
MP MMA Pros Pick picks César Almeida “I think César Almeida is going to walk walk away with a KO”
VM Verbal Sparring MMA picks César Almeida “César Almeida the six and one Prospect is taking on Abdul Razak Alhassan”
OH OhioPlayer picks César Almeida VALUE “César Almeidaida striking master class that's all I'll say”
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Abdul Razak Alhassan VALUE “with allisan I kind of lean more towards playing him especially with this insane price savings because this guy has knock out upside this guy has what 12 wins 11 of them coming in in the first round and then I also think he has sneaky taked down upside as well”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Almeida6-1
L Oleksiejczuk Decision · R3 Dec '25
W Alhassan KO/TKO · R1 Jan '25
W Potieria Decision · R3 Oct '24
L Kopylov Decision · R3 Jun '24
W Budka KO/TKO · R2 Apr '24
Razak Alhassan12-6
L Almeida KO/TKO · R1 Jan '25
L Pyfer Submission · R2 Oct '23
W Ribeiro KO/TKO · R2 Jan '23
L Buckley Decision · R3 Feb '22
W Chirico KO/TKO · R1 Aug '21