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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Costa v Rodriguez
Featherweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Costa 26-7
VS
12-4 Rodriguez
5'10"
height
5'7"
145 lb
weight
146 lb
71"
reach
72"
29
age
28
Southpaw
stance
Orthodox
3.5
strikes landed / min
3.6
46%
striking accuracy
47%
2.3
strikes absorbed / min
2.6
58%
striking defence
58%
2.5
takedowns / 15 min
1.1
35%
takedown accuracy
54%
52%
takedown defence
65%
1.1
submissions / 15 min
1.1
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
CP
Capper Comparison Picks picks Melquizael Costa VALUE
“I'm taking mil cazel Melquizael Costa by submission over Christian Rodriguez”
$2.40
Capper Comparison Picks picks Melquizael Costa VALUE
“I'm taking mil cazel Melquizael Costa by submission over Christian Rodriguez”
$2.40
BG
Bettor in Green picks Christian Rodriguez
“I'll take Rodriguez on the money line here at minus 166.”
$1.60
Bettor in Green picks Christian Rodriguez
“I'll take Rodriguez on the money line here at minus 166.”
$1.60
BG
Bettor in Green picks Melquizael Costa VALUE
“it just feels like Melquizael Costa is going to be able to win.”
Bettor in Green picks Melquizael Costa VALUE
“it just feels like Melquizael Costa is going to be able to win.”
SG
Savant of the Fight Game picks Christian Rodriguez
“I'm going to go with Christian Rodriguez on this one.”
Savant of the Fight Game picks Christian Rodriguez
“I'm going to go with Christian Rodriguez on this one.”
WP
We Want Picks picks Christian Rodriguez VALUE
“I am picking Crod.”
We Want Picks picks Christian Rodriguez VALUE
“I am picking Crod.”
JF
J.R.R. FIGHTS picks Christian Rodriguez
“I'm going to going for Christian Rodriguez Ronaldo Rodríguez Rodríguez here”
J.R.R. FIGHTS picks Christian Rodriguez
“I'm going to going for Christian Rodriguez Ronaldo Rodríguez Rodríguez here”
E!
Erok ! picks Melquizael Costa
“we're going Mel Melquizael Costa”
Erok ! picks Melquizael Costa
“we're going Mel Melquizael Costa”
PP
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Melquizael Costa VALUE
“I'm going to go with Melquizael Costa to get a decision dog”
$2.40
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Melquizael Costa VALUE
“I'm going to go with Melquizael Costa to get a decision dog”
$2.40
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Melquizael Costa VALUE
“Savage dog lock of the week we're going M quisel Melquizael Costa to win”
$2.40
MMA EXPERTS picks Melquizael Costa VALUE
“Savage dog lock of the week we're going M quisel Melquizael Costa to win”
$2.40
PR
Premium-Picks picks Christian Rodriguez VALUE
“the Christian Rodriguez at minus 160 still looks pretty good if you think he's going to win”
$1.62
Premium-Picks picks Christian Rodriguez VALUE
“the Christian Rodriguez at minus 160 still looks pretty good if you think he's going to win”
$1.62
VM
Verbal Sparring MMA picks Melquizael Costa VALUE
“And Costa has won three of his last four, none bigger than his first round submission against Andre Feelely February 22nd. And prior to that, he also had a submission via face crank. So, he has the opportunity to make it three victories in a row here against Christian Rodriguez.”
Verbal Sparring MMA picks Melquizael Costa VALUE
“And Costa has won three of his last four, none bigger than his first round submission against Andre Feelely February 22nd. And prior to that, he also had a submission via face crank. So, he has the opportunity to make it three victories in a row here against Christian Rodriguez.”
PS
Plays & Fades Sports picks Christian Rodriguez VALUE
“I am picking Christian Rodriguez this week.”
Plays & Fades Sports picks Christian Rodriguez VALUE
“I am picking Christian Rodriguez this week.”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Costa26-7
L
Allen
May '26
W
Ige
Feb '26
W
Charrière
Dec '25
W
Erosa
May '25
W
Rodriguez
Mar '25
Rodriguez12-4
W
Amil
Jun '26
L
Fili
Aug '25
L
Costa
Mar '25
W
Bashi
Jan '25
L
Erosa
Jul '24