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UFC on ESPN: Moreno vs. Erceg
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BM SE Moreno vs ErcegMain Card · Flyweight MT DD Torres vs DoberMain Card · Lightweight ÉC CV Cháirez vs VergaraMain Card · Flyweight RJ VM Rosas Jr. vs MoralesMain Card · Bantamweight DM SO Martínez vs OliveiraMain Card · Bantamweight KB RR Borjas vs RodríguezMain Card · Catchweight AG JM Gautier vs MedinaPreliminary Card · Middleweight MC CR Costa vs RodriguezPreliminary Card · Featherweight LG JP Godinez vs PolastriPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight RG VP García vs PichelPreliminary Card · Lightweight JE GM Emmers vs MirandaPreliminary Card · Featherweight MM AH Mederos vs HubbardPreliminary Card · Lightweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Rosas Jr. v Morales Bantamweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus57 picks · conf 72/99
Rosas Jr. 49
8 Morales
SMWPFS pick Rosas Jr.
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Rosas Jr. 0-0 VS 16-10 Morales
5'9" height 5'7"
135 lb weight 136 lb
67" reach 70"
21 age 35
Switch stance Orthodox
1.6 strikes landed / min 4.0
43% striking accuracy 36%
1.4 strikes absorbed / min 4.5
51% striking defence 53%
4.0 takedowns / 15 min 0.4
39% takedown accuracy 30%
0% takedown defence 65%
1.3 submissions / 15 min 0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
SL SUPER LUTAS picks Raul Rosas Jr. VALUE “vejo a vitória do Raul Rosas Jr.”
UC UFC - CELEBRITIES AND CLASSICS picks Raul Rosas Jr. “then Raul Rosas Jr. Vince Moralesce Brandon Morenoales no distance or roses to be next Gone versus Joe Pier um still go with P I already have a B on him P to win three round fight”
LE LAS 8 ESQUINAS picks Raul Rosas Jr. VALUE “pienso que el niño problema Chiwiwis va a cortar distancia y bueno, lo vamos a ver gritar ahí otra vez” $1.21
TT Takedown Titan picks Raul Rosas Jr. “Raul Rosas Jr. should be Vince Morales”
SG Savant of the Fight Game picks Vince Morales “I'm actually gonna go with Vince Morales.”
SO SOKRATES-MMA picks Raul Rosas Jr. “ich gehe mit Raul Rosas Jr.”
CT Combat Sports Today picks Raul Rosas Jr. “I think Raul Rosas Jr. by knockout at plus 600's High elevation for Raul Rosas Jr.”
WO WorstTakeMMA picks Raul Rosas Jr. VALUE “Rosus is coming in here with a 60% submission rate coming off a three-fight win streak.”
NM Nipple to Nipple MMA picks Vince Morales “if it's going to be a later rounds I'm taking Vince Morales”
NM Nipple to Nipple MMA picks Raul Rosas Jr. VALUE “if it's an early stoppage it's going to be Raul Rosas Raul Rosas Jr.”
WP We Want Picks picks Vince Morales VALUE “I think Vince Morales wins this fight.”
WP We Want Picks picks Raul Rosas Jr. VALUE “I'm very confident Raul if we get the forward aggression Vince and some wrestling from Raul Rosas then he's going to score a [ __ ] ton of points. I like Rosas.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Rosas Jr.0-0
W Font Decision · R3 Mar '26
W Morales Decision · R3 Mar '25
W Qileng Decision · R3 Sep '24
W Turcios Submission · R2 Jun '24
W Mitchell KO/TKO · R1 Sep '23
Morales16-10
L Thicknesse Decision · R3 May '26
L Rosas Jr. Decision · R3 Mar '25
L Smith Decision · R3 Feb '25
L Lapilus Decision · R3 Sep '24
L Johns Decision · R3 Nov '22