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UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2
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MD SO Dvalishvili vs O'MalleyMain Card · Bantamweight KH JP Harrison vs PeñaMain Card · Women'S Bantamweight KH VL Holland vs LuqueMain Card · Welterweight JP KG Pyfer vs GastelumMain Card · Middleweight JV BS Van vs SilvaPreliminary Card · Flyweight WC AS Cong vs SilvaEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight YJ JS Joo-sang vs SaragihEarly Preliminary Card · Featherweight QS YA Salkilld vs AshmouzEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight MB PM Bautista vs MixMain Card · Bantamweight AM BR Murzakanov vs RibeiroPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight WC SS Cortes-Acosta vs SpivacPreliminary Card · Heavyweight AG KW Gustafsson vs WilliamsPreliminary Card · Welterweight MM MC Mederos vs ChoinskiEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Holland v Luque Welterweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus74 picks · conf 77/99
Holland 49
25 Luque
MSHEMO pick Holland
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Holland 28-15 VS 0-0 Luque
6'3" height 5'11"
170 lb weight 170 lb
81" reach 76"
33 age 34
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.2 strikes landed / min 6.0
49% striking accuracy 57%
3.2 strikes absorbed / min 4.0
50% striking defence 55%
0.8 takedowns / 15 min 1.4
38% takedown accuracy 69%
54% takedown defence 60%
0.6 submissions / 15 min 1.4
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
BU BunkyMMA picks Kevin Holland VALUE “Give me Kevin Kevin Holland if that fight's not off. Give me Kevin Holland.”
CR Capitán Rafucho picks Kevin Holland VALUE “I would go with Kevin Holland knockout round two.”
RU RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Vicente Luque “I'm taking Vicente Luque here”
TD The Rambling Dad picks Kevin Holland “I'm going with Kevin Holland”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Kevin Holland “Kevin Holland pick will be Kevin Holland... Um Kevin Holland money line.”
12 12Coffees picks Kevin Holland “Siento que va a ganar Kevin Holland.”
MD mdminds picks Kevin Holland VALUE $1.36
MD mdminds picks Vicente Luque VALUE $2.62
FP Fight Pulse picks Kevin Holland “I do think Kevin Holland wins this fight.”
TS The Open Mat Show picks Kevin Holland VALUE “This one's pretty easy to a layup for Kevin Holland”
KU Kunath picks Kevin Holland VALUE “I do think that he's the rightful side.”
EB ESPN BET picks Kevin Holland VALUE “I'm going over one and a half rounds here.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Holland28-15
W Brown Decision · R3 Apr '26
L Malott Decision · R3 Oct '25
L Rodriguez Decision · R3 Jul '25
W Luque Submission · R2 Jun '25
W Nelson Decision · R3 Mar '25
Luque0-0
W Gastelum Submission · R1 Apr '26
L Álvarez Decision · R3 Oct '25
L Holland Submission · R2 Jun '25
W Gorimbo Submission · R1 Dec '24
L Buckley KO/TKO · R2 Mar '24