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UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
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LR KI Riley vs Kamaka III FREEPreliminary Card · Featherweight CS MB Sandhagen vs Bautista FREEMain Card · Bantamweight CM MH McGregor vs HollowayMain Card · Welterweight BD PP Denis vs PimblettMain Card · Lightweight BR LK Royval vs KavanaghMain Card · Flyweight KG TM Green vs McKinneyMain Card · Lightweight RW NK Whittaker vs KrylovPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight CG AY Garbrandt vs YañezPreliminary Card · Bantamweight TC WC Cortez vs CongEarly Preliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight DP CA Pinas vs AlmeidaEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight RG ZR Gandra vs ReeseEarly Preliminary Card · Middleweight GS EE Steveson vs EllisonPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
BEST PRICE We back Riley over Kamaka III · Featherweight Our fair value$1.26 Paddy Power pays above fair $1.33
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Where to back Riley best price · region · EV vs fair $1.26
US Caesars $1.32 +5%
UK Paddy Power $1.33 +6%
EU Coolbet $1.32 +5%
AU Bet Right $1.31 +4%
PM Polymarket crowd exchange $1.35
Consensus22 picks · conf 46/99
Riley 20
2 Kamaka III
TBEDmc pick Riley
How it endsmethod calls · Riley · crowd line
KO/TKO 1 $8.83
Decision 6 $1.47
Polymarket props · Riley KO/TKO $2.02 O/U 0.5 Rounds O $2.04 U $1.96O/U 2.5 Rounds O $2.06 U $1.94
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Riley 12-0 VS 17-7-1 Kamaka III
5'9" height 5'7"
145 lb weight 155 lb
69" reach 69"
27 age 31
Orthodox stance Orthodox
0.0 strikes landed / min 5.0
0% striking accuracy 57%
0.0 strikes absorbed / min 5.3
0% striking defence 55%
0.0 takedowns / 15 min 1.9
0% takedown accuracy 58%
0% takedown defence 52%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 0.3
AI analysis
Deep research · camps & rumours
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What the numbers say
Model vs market79% vs 75%
Consensus20 of 22 analysts
Line move · 7d$1.32 → $1.33
Sharpest angleRiley by Decision — 6 of 7 method calls
Recommendation Back Riley @ $1.33 · fair $1.26 +6% EDGE
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
MP Moí Díaz Combat Pubcast picks Kai Kamaka III VALUE “I'm gonna take Kai Kamaka III, bro” $3.60
SW SWGMMA picks Luke Riley “I'm going to take Luke Riley to win a decision here. I'm going to go 29-28.”
MA MassTechMMA picks Luke Riley “I've got to go with Luke Riley, I think.”
MM Marlon Rodriguez MMA picks Luke Riley “I'm going to take Luke Riley because I don't know.”
SM Shy Guy MMA picks Luke Riley “I want to predict that Luke Riley Luke Riley takes it via decision over Kai Kamaka III a tough Kai Kamaka III the third.”
DI DIORPIUM picks Kai Kamaka III “I'm going to go Kai Kamaka III getting like the decision here. Like this upset decision.”
CE CertifiedMMAsian picks Luke Riley “Give me Luke Riley by knockout over Kai Kamaka III.”
TO TonyHasDiedMMA picks Luke Riley “I think Luke Riley will be fine in this one. He will win by decision just out striking Kai Kamaka III.”
WM Work Break MMA picks Luke Riley “Give me Luke Riley to win this fight by first round knockout, catching Kai Kamaka III early and finishing him.”
FC Fight For Casuals picks Luke Riley “I think I agree with the odds on Luke Luke Riley”
MM MMA Monkey MMA picks Luke Riley “I'm taking Luke Riley as my uh prediction.”
WO wokski picks Luke Riley “I've got Luke Riley winning this fight by decision or TKO”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Riley12-0
W Aswell Jr. Decision · R3 Mar '26
W Grad KO/TKO · R2 Nov '25
Kamaka III17-7-1
W Hope Decision · R3 Apr '26
L Brown Decision · R3 May '21
L Pearce KO/TKO · R2 Nov '20
W Kelley Decision · R3 Aug '20