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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Tuivasa v Sutherland Heavyweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus150 picks · conf 99/99
Tuivasa 122
28 Sutherland
TBKSLR pick Tuivasa
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Tuivasa 15-9 VS 10-5 Sutherland
6'2" height 6'3"
265 lb weight 264 lb
75" reach 76"
33 age 32
Southpaw stance Orthodox
3.8 strikes landed / min 3.2
46% striking accuracy 53%
5.2 strikes absorbed / min 3.7
44% striking defence 49%
0.0 takedowns / 15 min 0.8
0% takedown accuracy 33%
57% takedown defence 82%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 1.9
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
MM MMAFightingonSBN picks Tai Tuivasa “actually going thumbs up for this one because I think Tai Tuivasa is going to win”
GI GiulianoArgenti picks Louie Sutherland “I I I think Louie Sutherland is [ __ ] because Louie Sutherland's just not going to be know you're talking about Louie Sutherland taken it”
HN Hidden Source News picks Tai Tuivasa “will pick Tai Tuivasa to win”
TP The MMA War Room Podcast picks Tai Tuivasa “I'm gonna say Tai Tuivasa by KO.”
TH ThatBettingDude picks Louie Sutherland “I'm going Louie Sutherland coming off a KO loss Louie Sutherland putting him out”
CO CombatCoreMMA picks Tai Tuivasa “I think Tai Tuivasa Vasa has got this one.”
22 222MMA picks Louie Sutherland “Honestly, going Louie Sutherland to win this fight by TKO.”
BP Beats Rhymes & Parlays picks Tai Tuivasa “But my pick is going to be uh Tai Tuivasa.”
FM FATALITY MMA picks Tai Tuivasa “I'm taking Tai Tuivasa. So, I mean, good lord. I'm taking Tai Tuivasa to win a fight in 2026... Yeah, I don't trust Louie Sutherland”
IZ Izzysdegenmind picks Tai Tuivasa “Tai Tuivasa best price minus 215. ... Tai Tuivasa wins this fight. ... Give me Tai Tuivasa to Tai Tuivasa.” $1.47
DC Dougies Corner picks Louie Sutherland “oh boy did Louie Sutherland you. Louie Sutherland that Louie Sutherland does throw before. Uh Louie Sutherland does come in with”
AC Anything Combat picks Tai Tuivasa “um I'm picking Tai Tuivasa by knockout.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Tuivasa15-9
L Sutherland Decision · R3 May '26
L Teixeira Decision · R3 Feb '26
L Rozenstruik Decision · R3 Aug '24
L Tybura Submission · R1 Mar '24
L Volkov Submission · R2 Sep '23
Sutherland10-5
W Tuivasa Decision · R3 May '26
L Peričić KO/TKO · R1 Mar '26
L Walker Submission · R1 Oct '25