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UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read McKinney v Duncan Lightweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus238 picks · conf 99/99
McKinney 92
146 Duncan
RTTNMH pick McKinney
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
McKinney 17-8 VS 15-2 Duncan
5'10" height 5'10"
156 lb weight 156 lb
74" reach 71"
31 age 33
Switch stance Orthodox
4.5 strikes landed / min 4.7
50% striking accuracy 46%
2.6 strikes absorbed / min 4.0
45% striking defence 48%
3.5 takedowns / 15 min 3.5
36% takedown accuracy 37%
85% takedown defence 33%
1.0 submissions / 15 min 0.3
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
WB WeeklyMMA Breakdowns picks Terrance McKinney VALUE “Terrance McKinney KO”
FI FIGHTBLOODLINE picks Terrance McKinney “I'm picking Terrance McKinney.”
KM Keep it a Buck Media picks Terrance McKinney VALUE “I'm staying with my Chris Duncan pick... give me Chris Duncan to win by sub in round two.”
KM Keep it a Buck Media picks Chris Duncan VALUE “I think Chris Duncan finds a finish here in the round two... win by submission.”
TD The DubCast picks Chris Duncan “Chris Duncan's gonna flatline him.”
IM IJB MMA picks Chris Duncan “I got Chris Duncan.”
PI PibbleMMA picks Chris Duncan VALUE “Gonna have to pick Chris Chris Duncan here.”
BD Big Dave picks Chris Duncan “I'm going to go Chris Chris Duncan. underdog. And Chris Chris Duncan is the minus”
RX RX picks Terrance McKinney “Give me Terrance McKinney by knockout first.”
MM MMAFightingonSBN picks Chris Duncan “Chris Duncan's money line has gone from Chris Duncan as like a plus 200” $3.00
MB Matty Betss picks Terrance McKinney “Dawson by Terrance McKinney verse Chris Duncan. Ends by won by submission.”
TT The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Chris Duncan “live price on Chris Duncan after 2 and 1/2 then bet Chris Duncan live... Chris Duncan's money pre-fight on Chris Duncan at the same plus money. Chris Duncan by decision is 13 or Chris Duncan and over half round plus 125, take.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
McKinney17-8
W Nelson KO/TKO · R1 Mar '26
L Duncan Submission · R1 Dec '25
W Borshchev Submission · R1 Jun '25
W Hadžović KO/TKO · R1 Feb '25
L Ribovics KO/TKO · R1 May '24
Duncan15-2
L Moicano Submission · R2 Apr '26
W McKinney Submission · R1 Dec '25
W Rębecki Decision · R3 Aug '25
W Vucenic Submission · R2 Mar '25
W Oki Submission · R1 Sep '24