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UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Dawson v Torres Lightweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus239 picks · conf 99/99
Dawson 125
114 Torres
TCNMHT pick Dawson
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Dawson 23-3-1 VS 17-3 Torres
5'10" height 5'10"
156 lb weight 156 lb
72" reach 73"
32 age 31
Switch stance Switch
3.1 strikes landed / min 7.2
52% striking accuracy 55%
2.0 strikes absorbed / min 4.5
45% striking defence 52%
3.6 takedowns / 15 min 2.3
38% takedown accuracy 66%
57% takedown defence 88%
1.2 submissions / 15 min 1.1
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
WB WeeklyMMA Breakdowns picks Grant Dawson VALUE “Grant Dawson versus Manuel Torres”
HI HilexMMA picks Manuel Torres “I think Manuel Torres might get it done,”
FI FIGHTBLOODLINE picks Grant Dawson “I'm taking Grant Dawson”
KM Keep it a Buck Media picks Grant Dawson VALUE “I think he finishes this fight uh around late second round, early third round or in the third round... by Grant Dawson... by TKO KOD DQ.”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Grant Dawson “I'm taking Grant Dawson.”
IM IJB MMA picks Manuel Torres “I'm picking Manuel Torres.”
PI PibbleMMA picks Grant Dawson VALUE “I picked Grant Dawson.”
RX RX picks Manuel Torres “Manuel Torres is actually going to win this yeah, give me Manuel Torres first... Manuel Torres by knockout”
MT MMA Tugg picks Grant Dawson “Listen, we're riding with Grant Dawson.”
MB Matty Betss picks Grant Dawson “So, I think that Grant Dawson going to be on Manuel Torres by”
BS Betting Weekly Studios picks Grant Dawson “Grant Dawson to win inside the distance.”
TT The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Grant Dawson “Grant Dawson a bit favors Grant Dawson, leans more into his Grant Dawson taking over”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Dawson23-3-1
W Rębecki Submission · R3 May '26
L Torres KO/TKO · R1 Dec '25
W Ferreira Decision · R3 Jan '25
W García KO/TKO · R2 Oct '24
W Solecki Decision · R3 Jun '24
Torres17-3
L Fiziev KO/TKO · R2 Jun '26
W Dawson KO/TKO · R1 Dec '25
W Dober KO/TKO · R1 Mar '25
L Bahamondes KO/TKO · R1 Sep '24
W Duncan Submission · R1 Feb '24