Choose a fight to analyse
AT
DH
Tsarukyan vs HookerMain Card · Lightweight
BM
IG
Muhammad vs GarryMain Card · Welterweight
VO
AM
Oezdemir vs MenifieldMain Card · Light Heavyweight
JH
MO
Hermansson vs OrolbaiMain Card · Welterweight
AP
AA
Perez vs AlmabayevPreliminary Card · Flyweight
BG
LR
Grad vs RileyPreliminary Card · Featherweight
AY
RC
Yakhyaev vs CerqueiraPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
TU
KH
Ulanbekov vs HoriguchiMain Card · Flyweight
BA
AT
Almakhan vs TopuriaPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
IN
RL
Naurdiev vs LoderPreliminary Card · Middleweight
NA
SR
Aliev vs RockPreliminary Card · Lightweight
ND
SI
Dalby vs IzagakhmaevPreliminary Card · Welterweight
MB
DF
Bujło vs FreemanPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
WC
SG
Cortes-Acosta vs GazievMain Card · Heavyweight
DH
Tsarukyan vs HookerMain Card · Lightweight
BM
IG
Muhammad vs GarryMain Card · Welterweight
VO
AM
Oezdemir vs MenifieldMain Card · Light Heavyweight
JH
MO
Hermansson vs OrolbaiMain Card · Welterweight
AP
AA
Perez vs AlmabayevPreliminary Card · Flyweight
BG
LR
Grad vs RileyPreliminary Card · Featherweight
AY
RC
Yakhyaev vs CerqueiraPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
TU
KH
Ulanbekov vs HoriguchiMain Card · Flyweight
BA
AT
Almakhan vs TopuriaPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
IN
RL
Naurdiev vs LoderPreliminary Card · Middleweight
NA
SR
Aliev vs RockPreliminary Card · Lightweight
ND
SI
Dalby vs IzagakhmaevPreliminary Card · Welterweight
MB
DF
Bujło vs FreemanPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
WC
SG
Cortes-Acosta vs GazievMain Card · Heavyweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Grad v Riley
Featherweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
Go Pro →
New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Grad 14-2
VS
12-0 Riley
5'8"
height
5'9"
146 lb
weight
145 lb
70"
reach
69"
30
age
27
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
6.3
strikes landed / min
0.0
47%
striking accuracy
0%
10.2
strikes absorbed / min
0.0
49%
striking defence
0%
2.8
takedowns / 15 min
0.0
42%
takedown accuracy
0%
0%
takedown defence
0%
0.0
submissions / 15 min
0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
Go Pro →
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
TD
The Rambling Dad picks Luke Riley VALUE
“I'm going to be going with uh with Luke Riley on this one. I just think >> I just think he's in a ton of uh ton of fun fights.”
$1.37
The Rambling Dad picks Luke Riley VALUE
“I'm going to be going with uh with Luke Riley on this one. I just think >> I just think he's in a ton of uh ton of fun fights.”
$1.37
GM
GLO MMA picks Luke Riley VALUE
“I'm picking Luke Riley to get this done. Be a decision.”
GLO MMA picks Luke Riley VALUE
“I'm picking Luke Riley to get this done. Be a decision.”
GM
GLO MMA picks Bogdan Grad VALUE
“I'm picking Luke Riley to get this done. Be a decision.”
GLO MMA picks Bogdan Grad VALUE
“I'm picking Luke Riley to get this done. Be a decision.”
FI
FIGHTBLOODLINE picks Bogdan Grad
“I'm going to take Bogdan Grad”
FIGHTBLOODLINE picks Bogdan Grad
“I'm going to take Bogdan Grad”
VM
Voice of MMA picks Bogdan Grad VALUE
“I got to be taking Luke Riley here by KO.”
Voice of MMA picks Bogdan Grad VALUE
“I got to be taking Luke Riley here by KO.”
VM
Voice of MMA picks Luke Riley VALUE
“I got to be taking Luke Riley here by KO.”
Voice of MMA picks Luke Riley VALUE
“I got to be taking Luke Riley here by KO.”
MC
MMA CTRL picks Luke Riley VALUE
“Luke Riley is going to get the job done by finish over Bogdan Grad.”
MMA CTRL picks Luke Riley VALUE
“Luke Riley is going to get the job done by finish over Bogdan Grad.”
FF
Four Ounce Fanatic picks Bogdan Grad
“I will be picking Bogdan Grad ... pick Bogdan Grad”
Four Ounce Fanatic picks Bogdan Grad
“I will be picking Bogdan Grad ... pick Bogdan Grad”
UP
UFC FIGHT PASS picks Luke Riley
“My pick for perhaps fight of the weekend, NOT_IN_ROSTER_18 and Ngatchou returning to Cage Warriors.”
UFC FIGHT PASS picks Luke Riley
“My pick for perhaps fight of the weekend, NOT_IN_ROSTER_18 and Ngatchou returning to Cage Warriors.”
DO
DonDaDa02 picks Luke Riley
“I think Luke Riley is going to win this matchup.”
DonDaDa02 picks Luke Riley
“I think Luke Riley is going to win this matchup.”
MN
MNPicks picks Luke Riley
“I'm taking Luke Riley at 73%.”
MNPicks picks Luke Riley
“I'm taking Luke Riley at 73%.”
BE
BetFighter picks Luke Riley
“I'm predicting Luke Riley will win by decision.”
BetFighter picks Luke Riley
“I'm predicting Luke Riley will win by decision.”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Grad14-2
L
Riley
Nov '25
L
Naimov
Jun '25
W
Alexander
Feb '25
Riley12-0
W
Aswell Jr.
Mar '26
W
Grad
Nov '25