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UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Filho v Carpenter Flyweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus73 picks · conf 76/99
Filho 29
44 Carpenter
LDTEJN pick Filho
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Filho 17-5 VS 8-2 Carpenter
5'7" height 5'6"
135 lb weight 126 lb
69" reach 66"
33 age 30
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.5 strikes landed / min 4.8
41% striking accuracy 62%
3.3 strikes absorbed / min 4.0
54% striking defence 49%
2.3 takedowns / 15 min 1.3
74% takedown accuracy 31%
71% takedown defence 50%
0.7 submissions / 15 min 1.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
GM GLO MMA picks Clayton Carpenter VALUE
GM GLO MMA picks Jafel Filho VALUE
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Clayton Carpenter “I'm going to take Clayton Clayton Carpenter to win.”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Jafel Filho “I think Jafel Filho is going to win.”
GI GipperPicks picks Clayton Carpenter “I look for Clayton Carpenter to get the decision win.”
FI Fight_Numerology picks Jafel Filho VALUE “So I'm going with Filelio in this one.”
KU Kunath picks Jafel Filho VALUE “give me Jafel Filho to win this fight.”
KU Kunath picks Clayton Carpenter “I think Jafel Filho might be the slightly more dangerous guy.”
HN Hidden Source News picks Clayton Carpenter “I will be picking Clayton Carpenter to take the win.”
GI GiulianoArgenti picks Jafel Filho “No direct pick quote for Jafel Filho.”
GI GiulianoArgenti picks Clayton Carpenter “I'm definely going to take Clayton Carpenter.”
MU MustardKetchupMayo1000 picks Jafel Filho “I'm gonna take Jafel Filho.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Filho17-5
L Durden Decision · R3 Apr '26
W Carpenter Submission · R1 Oct '25
L Nascimento Decision · R3 May '25
W Osbourne Submission · R1 Mar '24
W Bárez Submission · R1 Jul '23
Carpenter8-2
L Ochoa Decision · R3 May '26
L Filho Submission · R1 Oct '25
L Ulanbekov Decision · R3 Jan '25
W Rocha Submission · R2 Oct '24
W Ronderos Submission · R1 Feb '23