Choose a fight to analyse
CO
MG
Oliveira vs GamrotMain Card · Lightweight
DF
MJ
Figueiredo vs JacksonMain Card · Bantamweight
VL
JÁ
Luque vs ÁlvarezMain Card · Welterweight
JD
MP
Diniz vs PintoMain Card · Heavyweight
RR
KO
Ramos vs OfliMain Card · Featherweight
LA
MA
Almeida vs AswellPreliminary Card · Featherweight
JF
CC
Filho vs CarpenterPreliminary Card · Flyweight
VP
TP
Petrino vs PetersenPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
BM
IA
Mesquita vs AlekseevaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
LR
SN
Rocha vs NicollPreliminary Card · Flyweight
JP
KK
Polastri vs KowalkiewiczPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
LL
SO
Lacerda vs OliveiraPreliminary Card · Catchweight
MG
Oliveira vs GamrotMain Card · Lightweight
DF
MJ
Figueiredo vs JacksonMain Card · Bantamweight
VL
JÁ
Luque vs ÁlvarezMain Card · Welterweight
JD
MP
Diniz vs PintoMain Card · Heavyweight
RR
KO
Ramos vs OfliMain Card · Featherweight
LA
MA
Almeida vs AswellPreliminary Card · Featherweight
JF
CC
Filho vs CarpenterPreliminary Card · Flyweight
VP
TP
Petrino vs PetersenPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
BM
IA
Mesquita vs AlekseevaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
LR
SN
Rocha vs NicollPreliminary Card · Flyweight
JP
KK
Polastri vs KowalkiewiczPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
LL
SO
Lacerda vs OliveiraPreliminary Card · Catchweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Luque v Álvarez
Welterweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
Go Pro →
New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Luque 0-0
VS
23-3 Álvarez
5'11"
height
6'3"
170 lb
weight
171 lb
76"
reach
77"
34
age
33
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
6.0
strikes landed / min
2.9
57%
striking accuracy
62%
4.0
strikes absorbed / min
4.4
55%
striking defence
54%
1.4
takedowns / 15 min
2.5
69%
takedown accuracy
37%
60%
takedown defence
50%
1.4
submissions / 15 min
0.8
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
Go Pro →
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
GM
GLO MMA picks Joel Álvarez VALUE
GLO MMA picks Joel Álvarez VALUE
ES
etoft21 sports picks Joel Álvarez VALUE
“I'm going to take him on FanDuel here by submission in round one or two plus 210”
etoft21 sports picks Joel Álvarez VALUE
“I'm going to take him on FanDuel here by submission in round one or two plus 210”
CP
Capper Comparison Picks picks Joel Álvarez
“I'm on Joel Álvarez all day”
Capper Comparison Picks picks Joel Álvarez
“I'm on Joel Álvarez all day”
LO
Lowking.pl picks Vicente Luque VALUE
“Vicente Luque, usug doori addat suge way”
Lowking.pl picks Vicente Luque VALUE
“Vicente Luque, usug doori addat suge way”
PV
Predicciones UFC - VainillaUFC picks Joel Álvarez VALUE
“Joel Álvarez është një bishë. Kohët e fundit ka shkuar shumë mirë”
Predicciones UFC - VainillaUFC picks Joel Álvarez VALUE
“Joel Álvarez është një bishë. Kohët e fundit ka shkuar shumë mirë”
KU
Kunath picks Vicente Luque
“Vicente Luque down here at 6700 feels like a steal, but that just speaks to how much of a monster Joel Álvarez really is.”
Kunath picks Vicente Luque
“Vicente Luque down here at 6700 feels like a steal, but that just speaks to how much of a monster Joel Álvarez really is.”
KU
Kunath picks Joel Álvarez VALUE
“Vicente Luque down here at 6700 feels like a steal, but that just speaks to how much of a monster Joel Álvarez really is.”
Kunath picks Joel Álvarez VALUE
“Vicente Luque down here at 6700 feels like a steal, but that just speaks to how much of a monster Joel Álvarez really is.”
SO
SOKRATES-MMA picks Joel Álvarez
“I would definitely bet on Joel Álvarez. The man is young, he is finishing potential. That’s why I’m clearly betting on Joel Álvarez.”
SOKRATES-MMA picks Joel Álvarez
“I would definitely bet on Joel Álvarez. The man is young, he is finishing potential. That’s why I’m clearly betting on Joel Álvarez.”
LI
Livershot picks Vicente Luque
“I'm rooting for Luke to get back into the swing of things with his EVENT_DETAILS return. Come on, Luke. You can do it, bud.”
Livershot picks Vicente Luque
“I'm rooting for Luke to get back into the swing of things with his EVENT_DETAILS return. Come on, Luke. You can do it, bud.”
HN
Hidden Source News picks Joel Álvarez VALUE
“My pick will be Joel Álvarez to take the win.”
Hidden Source News picks Joel Álvarez VALUE
“My pick will be Joel Álvarez to take the win.”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Luque0-0
W
Gastelum
Apr '26
L
Álvarez
Oct '25
L
Holland
Jun '25
W
Gorimbo
Dec '24
L
Buckley
Mar '24
Álvarez23-3
L
Amosov
May '26
W
Luque
Oct '25
W
Klose
Dec '24
W
Brener
Aug '24
W
Diakiese
Jul '23