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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Kavanagh v Johnson
Flyweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Kavanagh 9-1
VS
19-8 Johnson
5'6"
height
5'9"
126 lb
weight
126 lb
67"
reach
70"
27
age
35
Orthodox
stance
Switch
3.1
strikes landed / min
4.2
50%
striking accuracy
47%
2.6
strikes absorbed / min
3.1
54%
striking defence
54%
1.0
takedowns / 15 min
1.9
40%
takedown accuracy
66%
82%
takedown defence
55%
0.4
submissions / 15 min
1.9
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
GM
GLO MMA picks Lone'er Kavanagh VALUE
“I'm picking NOT_IN_ROSTER_17 Lone'er Kavanagh to get this done by decision.”
GLO MMA picks Lone'er Kavanagh VALUE
“I'm picking NOT_IN_ROSTER_17 Lone'er Kavanagh to get this done by decision.”
DM
DMan&MariPulls picks Lone'er Kavanagh
“I got I got Lone'er Kavanagh on this one as well.”
DMan&MariPulls picks Lone'er Kavanagh
“I got I got Lone'er Kavanagh on this one as well.”
MM
MMAPREDICTIONGURU picks Lone'er Kavanagh
“I'm going with Lone'er Kavanagh and I think he's going to win a decision”
MMAPREDICTIONGURU picks Lone'er Kavanagh
“I'm going with Lone'er Kavanagh and I think he's going to win a decision”
FM
FORGE MMA picks Charles Johnson VALUE
“I'm going with Charles Johnson”
FORGE MMA picks Charles Johnson VALUE
“I'm going with Charles Johnson”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Charles Johnson VALUE
“I've been picking the side of Charles Johnson Charles Johnson.”
$2.66
MMA EXPERTS picks Charles Johnson VALUE
“I've been picking the side of Charles Johnson Charles Johnson.”
$2.66
E!
Erok ! picks Charles Johnson VALUE
“I am going to take Charles Johnson just off of the experience. ... We're taking him.”
$2.70
Erok ! picks Charles Johnson VALUE
“I am going to take Charles Johnson just off of the experience. ... We're taking him.”
$2.70
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Lone'er Kavanagh
“I've got to pick Lone'er Kavanagh.”
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Lone'er Kavanagh
“I've got to pick Lone'er Kavanagh.”
LS
Last Real Sport picks Lone'er Kavanagh VALUE
“I've got to pick Lone'er Kavanagh to win this fight.”
Last Real Sport picks Lone'er Kavanagh VALUE
“I've got to pick Lone'er Kavanagh to win this fight.”
IF
Inside Fighting picks Lone'er Kavanagh VALUE
“I'm probably going with Lone'er Kavanagh. I think I think he's impressed somewhat recently as well. Um he's obviously like he doesn't have the experience that uh Charles Johnson has, but I'm not too hot. I'm I'm always hotter on the young prospect versus like the the old guy that's been in there for a while”
Inside Fighting picks Lone'er Kavanagh VALUE
“I'm probably going with Lone'er Kavanagh. I think I think he's impressed somewhat recently as well. Um he's obviously like he doesn't have the experience that uh Charles Johnson has, but I'm not too hot. I'm I'm always hotter on the young prospect versus like the the old guy that's been in there for a while”
UF
UFCThoughts picks Charles Johnson VALUE
“I'm going to go with a Charles Johnson upset.”
UFCThoughts picks Charles Johnson VALUE
“I'm going to go with a Charles Johnson upset.”
EB
ESPN BET picks Charles Johnson VALUE
“I'm going Charles Johnson. As much as I think Kavanaaugh is a very solid prospect, a lot of fun. This is a big step up in competition and Charles Johnson has also fought much higher level competition. So for me, this feels like a Charles Johnson win by decision. ... plus 170. Give me the season vet. I think he pulls off the upset here.”
$2.70
ESPN BET picks Charles Johnson VALUE
“I'm going Charles Johnson. As much as I think Kavanaaugh is a very solid prospect, a lot of fun. This is a big step up in competition and Charles Johnson has also fought much higher level competition. So for me, this feels like a Charles Johnson win by decision. ... plus 170. Give me the season vet. I think he pulls off the upset here.”
$2.70
WP
We Want Picks picks Lone'er Kavanagh VALUE
“I do think Lone'er Kavanagh is going to win this fight”
We Want Picks picks Lone'er Kavanagh VALUE
“I do think Lone'er Kavanagh is going to win this fight”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Kavanagh9-1
W
Moreno
Feb '26
L
Johnson
Aug '25
W
Santos
Mar '25
W
Ochoa
Nov '24
Johnson19-8
L
Almabayev
Jun '26
W
Silva
Mar '26
L
Perez
Jan '26
W
Kavanagh
Aug '25
L
Temirov
Mar '25