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UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Pavlovich v Cortes-Acosta Heavyweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus38 picks · conf 60/99
Pavlovich 22
16 Cortes-Acosta
BLBMO1 pick Pavlovich
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Pavlovich 20-3 VS 17-2 Cortes-Acosta
6'3" height 6'4"
255 lb weight 262 lb
84" reach 78"
34 age 34
Southpaw stance Orthodox
3.1 strikes landed / min 5.9
44% striking accuracy 65%
3.3 strikes absorbed / min 2.2
66% striking defence 52%
1.8 takedowns / 15 min 2.3
25% takedown accuracy 69%
64% takedown defence 63%
1.1 submissions / 15 min 0.5
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
DM DMan&MariPulls picks Waldo Cortes-Acosta “So, I'm going I'm going Waldo Cortes-Acosta.” $3.20
FM FORGE MMA picks Sergei Pavlovich “I'm going with Sergey Sergei Pavlovich.” $1.40
US Uselyis picks Waldo Cortes-Acosta “Give me Waldo Cortes-Acosta moneyline plus 198” $2.98
FI FightMike picks Waldo Cortes-Acosta “I'm picking Waldo Cortes-Acosta.”
LJ Lucrative James picks Sergei Pavlovich VALUE “I think Sergei Pavlovich is going to knock him out.”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Waldo Cortes-Acosta VALUE “I'm going with Waldo Cortes-Acosta.” $3.15
BB Bart Barrett picks Waldo Cortes-Acosta “I'm going to take Waldo Cortes-Acosta for the upside here. I think he wins this one by decision.”
BB Bart Barrett picks Sergei Pavlovich “I'm definitely on Sergei Pavlovich Pavlavich here... my prediction is going to be Pav Lavage by decision at plus 300.”
WP We Want Picks picks Waldo Cortes-Acosta VALUE “I'm going to pick Waldo Cortes-Acosta”
LM Leftlane MMA picks Sergei Pavlovich “So I I'm picking Sergei Pavlovich.”
LM Livid Larry MMA picks Waldo Cortes-Acosta VALUE “I've personally chosen Austin Hubard, Charles Johnson, Kevin Borjas, and Waldo Cortes-Acosta as my picks for solid underdogs on this card.”
BI BigCMMA picks Sergei Pavlovich VALUE “I'm going Waldo Cortez Costa to win this one by decision.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Pavlovich20-3
W Teixeira KO/TKO · R1 May '26
W Cortes-Acosta Decision · R3 Aug '25
W Rozenstruik Decision · R3 Feb '25
L Volkov Decision · R3 Jun '24
L Aspinall KO/TKO · R1 Nov '23
Cortes-Acosta17-2
L Volkov Decision · R3 May '26
W Lewis KO/TKO · R2 Jan '26
W Gaziev KO/TKO · R1 Nov '25
W Delija KO/TKO · R1 Nov '25
L Pavlovich Decision · R3 Aug '25