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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Ortega v Sterling
Catchweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Ortega 16-5
VS
25-5 Sterling
5'8"
height
5'7"
153 lb
weight
153 lb
69"
reach
71"
35
age
36
Switch
stance
Orthodox
5.7
strikes landed / min
5.7
40%
striking accuracy
44%
4.3
strikes absorbed / min
2.5
49%
striking defence
55%
0.9
takedowns / 15 min
1.5
44%
takedown accuracy
27%
58%
takedown defence
63%
1.4
submissions / 15 min
1.1
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
GM
GLO MMA picks Brian Ortega VALUE
“I'm going to go and pick Aljine Aljamain Sterling because he has the better grappling.”
MM
MMAPREDICTIONGURU picks Aljamain Sterling
“Almaine Sterling in the co-main event is my prediction there.”
FM
FORGE MMA picks Aljamain Sterling
“I'm going with Aljo. I'm going with the Jamaican sensation. ... He's going to beat Brian Ortega.”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Aljamain Sterling
“I'm going Al Lane. Aljamain Sterling for the W.”
BB
Bart Barrett picks Aljamain Sterling
“I like Aljamain Sterling quite a bit here... expect a heavy grappling match uh with Aljamain Sterling controlling majority of the fight.”
JO
JorgeFlyingKnee picks Brian Ortega
“I got to give it to Brian Ortega”
UG
UFC GamblingAddicts picks Brian Ortega VALUE
“I would go with Brian Ortega. At those odds, I would have to go underdog or pass completely.”
UF
UFCThoughts picks Brian Ortega
“I'm going to pick Brian Ortega in a five round fight over Aljain Funk Master Sterling.”
SN
SPORTS JEDI NETWORK picks Brian Ortega VALUE
WP
We Want Picks picks Aljamain Sterling VALUE
“Aljamain Sterling is going to win this fight”
LM
Leftlane MMA picks Aljamain Sterling
“give me Aljamain Sterling. Um, and I desperately need him to win cuz like all my bets for the week require Aljamain Sterling to win. So, um, yeah, Aljamain Sterling, I'm going to say decision.”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Ortega16-5
L
Sterling
Aug '25
L
Lopes
Sep '24
W
Rodríguez
Feb '24
L
Rodríguez
Jul '22
L
Volkanovski
Sep '21
Sterling25-5
W
Zalal
Apr '26
W
Ortega
Aug '25
L
Evloev
Dec '24
W
Kattar
Apr '24
L
O'Malley
Aug '23