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Satybaldiev vs NurgozhayPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
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Walker vs MingyangMain Card · Light Heavyweight
BO
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Ortega vs SterlingMain Card · Catchweight
SP
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Pavlovich vs Cortes-AcostaMain Card · Heavyweight
US
DN
Satybaldiev vs NurgozhayPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
LK
CJ
Kavanagh vs JohnsonPreliminary Card · Flyweight
SM
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Mudaerji vs BorjasMain Card · Flyweight
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KC
Nueraji vs CrosbieMain Card · Welterweight
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Hayisaer vs YoungPreliminary Card · Lightweight
RZ
AH
Zhu vs HubbardPreliminary Card · Lightweight
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Pereira vs DaukausPreliminary Card · Middleweight
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Zha vs WilsonPreliminary Card · Featherweight
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Long vs Su-youngPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Satybaldiev v Nurgozhay
Light Heavyweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Satybaldiev 9-1
VS
10-2 Nurgozhay
6'4"
height
6'2"
204 lb
weight
205 lb
79"
reach
74"
31
age
29
Orthodox
stance
Southpaw
2.3
strikes landed / min
2.5
46%
striking accuracy
63%
2.9
strikes absorbed / min
3.1
67%
striking defence
52%
1.8
takedowns / 15 min
1.9
40%
takedown accuracy
68%
70%
takedown defence
78%
0.1
submissions / 15 min
1.9
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
MM
MMAPREDICTIONGURU picks Diyar Nurgozhay VALUE
“I'm going to go with Diyar Nurgozhay to uh win this fight.”
MMAPREDICTIONGURU picks Diyar Nurgozhay VALUE
“I'm going to go with Diyar Nurgozhay to uh win this fight.”
FM
FORGE MMA picks Uran Satybaldiev
“I'm picking Uran Satybaldiev.”
FORGE MMA picks Uran Satybaldiev
“I'm picking Uran Satybaldiev.”
LJ
Lucrative James picks Uran Satybaldiev VALUE
“I'NOT_IN_ROSTER_20 probably picking Uran Satybaldiev just because he's a dog.”
Lucrative James picks Uran Satybaldiev VALUE
“I'NOT_IN_ROSTER_20 probably picking Uran Satybaldiev just because he's a dog.”
LJ
Lucrative James picks Diyar Nurgozhay VALUE
“I still think he's the side though. Maybe by decision.”
Lucrative James picks Diyar Nurgozhay VALUE
“I still think he's the side though. Maybe by decision.”
BB
Bart Barrett picks Diyar Nurgozhay
“I'm going to pick Diyar Nurgozhay by decision”
Bart Barrett picks Diyar Nurgozhay
“I'm going to pick Diyar Nurgozhay by decision”
BB
Bart Barrett picks Uran Satybaldiev
“I'm sure Diyar Nurgozhay might hurt him at some point... but I just think Uran will be able to finish or I don't know if he's going to get a finish here, but I think it's going to be a back and forth battle that goes to decision.”
Bart Barrett picks Uran Satybaldiev
“I'm sure Diyar Nurgozhay might hurt him at some point... but I just think Uran will be able to finish or I don't know if he's going to get a finish here, but I think it's going to be a back and forth battle that goes to decision.”
LS
Last Real Sport picks Uran Satybaldiev VALUE
“I'm going to pick Uran Satybaldiev here to win this fight.”
Last Real Sport picks Uran Satybaldiev VALUE
“I'm going to pick Uran Satybaldiev here to win this fight.”
UF
UFCThoughts picks Uran Satybaldiev
“I'm going to be picking [ __ ] Uran Satybaldiev.”
UFCThoughts picks Uran Satybaldiev
“I'm going to be picking [ __ ] Uran Satybaldiev.”
WP
We Want Picks picks Diyar Nurgozhay VALUE
“I'm gonna go Diyar Nurgozhay here”
We Want Picks picks Diyar Nurgozhay VALUE
“I'm gonna go Diyar Nurgozhay here”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Satybaldiev9-1
W
Nurgozhay
Aug '25
L
Buday
Apr '25
Nurgozhay10-2
W
Tobias
Mar '26
L
Satybaldiev
Aug '25
L
Ribeiro
Mar '25