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UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Aspinall v Tybura Heavyweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus48 picks · conf 68/99
Aspinall 44
4 Tybura
HMRBCU pick Aspinall
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Aspinall 15-3 VS 27-10 Tybura
6'5" height 6'3"
251 lb weight 256 lb
78" reach 78"
33 age 40
Orthodox stance Orthodox
8.1 strikes landed / min 2.5
67% striking accuracy 45%
2.9 strikes absorbed / min 4.4
65% striking defence 69%
3.3 takedowns / 15 min 2.6
100% takedown accuracy 55%
100% takedown defence 87%
1.6 submissions / 15 min 0.9
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
DR DraftKings picks Tom Aspinall VALUE $1.20
RW Ryan The Champutee Wallace picks Tom Aspinall “I think a little bit of a different animal and by the second or third round he's gonna overwhelming”
BC Blessed Collector picks Tom Aspinall “Tom Aspinall over Marcin Tybura I think they're both going to win pretty easily”
CP Couch Warrior Podcast picks Tom Aspinall “give me Tom Aspen all here pretty confident”
OS Odds Shark picks Tom Aspinall “I think Tom Aspinall Aspinall is going to win”
HY Hypecheck picks Tom Aspinall “betting wise this is one of the safer plays on the entire card and I will happily be using Tom Aspinall Aspinall as a parlay piece” $1.21
UM UFC Memeland picks Tom Aspinall VALUE “a prediction I'm leaning towards Tom Aspinall aspinal to come out victorious”
CC Combat Crazy picks Tom Aspinall “I see Tom Aspinall Tom Aspinall Aspinallll putting him away in the third round”
BF Bobby Bets Fights picks Tom Aspinall “I'm gonna go with Tom aspinel”
PR Premium-Picks picks Tom Aspinall VALUE “give me Tom Aspinall” $1.22
BB Blood Money MMA Bets picks Tom Aspinall “Tom Aspinall vs Marcin Tybura”
BB Blood Money MMA Bets picks Marcin Tybura “Tom Aspinall vs Marcin Tybura”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Aspinall15-3
W Blaydes KO/TKO · R1 Jul '24
W Pavlovich KO/TKO · R1 Nov '23
W Tybura KO/TKO · R1 Jul '23
L Blaydes KO/TKO · R1 Jul '22
W Volkov Submission · R1 Mar '22
Tybura27-10
L Fortune Decision · R3 Mar '26
L Delija KO/TKO · R1 Sep '25
W Parkin Decision · R3 Mar '25
W Diniz KO/TKO · R2 Nov '24
L Spivac Submission · R1 Aug '24