Choose a fight to analyse
AH
MP
Hernandez vs PereiraMain Card · Middleweight
RF
KP
Font vs PhillipsMain Card · Bantamweight
CJ
SM
Johnson vs MudaerjiMain Card · Flyweight
CS
JH
Smotherman vs HadleyMain Card · Bantamweight
DE
DP
Elkins vs PinedaMain Card · Featherweight
AA
MN
Almabayev vs NicolauPreliminary Card · Flyweight
JM
BK
Matsumoto vs KatonaPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
JE
TV
Edwards vs VidalPreliminary Card · Catchweight
ER
JP
Reed vs PennePreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
MM
AA
Martinez vs ArdeleanPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
AL
RD
Lane vs DespaignePreliminary Card · Heavyweight
MP
Hernandez vs PereiraMain Card · Middleweight
RF
KP
Font vs PhillipsMain Card · Bantamweight
CJ
SM
Johnson vs MudaerjiMain Card · Flyweight
CS
JH
Smotherman vs HadleyMain Card · Bantamweight
DE
DP
Elkins vs PinedaMain Card · Featherweight
AA
MN
Almabayev vs NicolauPreliminary Card · Flyweight
JM
BK
Matsumoto vs KatonaPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
JE
TV
Edwards vs VidalPreliminary Card · Catchweight
ER
JP
Reed vs PennePreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
MM
AA
Martinez vs ArdeleanPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
AL
RD
Lane vs DespaignePreliminary Card · Heavyweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Martinez v Ardelean
Women'S Strawweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
Go Pro →
New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Martinez 8-1
VS
12-7 Ardelean
5'2"
height
5'3"
116 lb
weight
116 lb
66"
reach
62"
28
age
34
Southpaw
stance
Orthodox
3.9
strikes landed / min
6.0
52%
striking accuracy
50%
4.3
strikes absorbed / min
3.7
55%
striking defence
48%
0.5
takedowns / 15 min
2.9
50%
takedown accuracy
33%
25%
takedown defence
72%
0.0
submissions / 15 min
0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
Go Pro →
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
KM
Keep it a Buck Media picks Melissa Martinez VALUE
“I'm going to take the underdog here I'm going to take at least aene Melissa Martinez is coming off a two-year layoff and I just don't know what she's gonna look like and she lost her UFC debut um in her last fight that she was in two years ago uh yeah she's she's quick on the feet she's has some good kicks but I think Elise Reed in the way she kind of when she weighed in today she looked really really good uh she's taking that you know her conditioning better she's she's like trimming off the fat um at least looks looks really good and I think what gives me a bit more hope in the lease is that she's going just to press forward bring the pressure and kind of take away that distance that Melissa Martinez likes to uh you know strike with um I think at least is going going to have Melissa Martinez Against the Cage I think she's kind of kind of wear on Melissa Martinez here and um and I just don't know what Melissa Martinez cardio gonna look like after two years so give me the underdog here give me Underdog number one give me Elise Reed ardene.”
Keep it a Buck Media picks Melissa Martinez VALUE
“I'm going to take the underdog here I'm going to take at least aene Melissa Martinez is coming off a two-year layoff and I just don't know what she's gonna look like and she lost her UFC debut um in her last fight that she was in two years ago uh yeah she's she's quick on the feet she's has some good kicks but I think Elise Reed in the way she kind of when she weighed in today she looked really really good uh she's taking that you know her conditioning better she's she's like trimming off the fat um at least looks looks really good and I think what gives me a bit more hope in the lease is that she's going just to press forward bring the pressure and kind of take away that distance that Melissa Martinez likes to uh you know strike with um I think at least is going going to have Melissa Martinez Against the Cage I think she's kind of kind of wear on Melissa Martinez here and um and I just don't know what Melissa Martinez cardio gonna look like after two years so give me the underdog here give me Underdog number one give me Elise Reed ardene.”
CP
Capper Comparison Picks picks Melissa Martinez
“I'm going to take Melissa Martinez by decision”
Capper Comparison Picks picks Melissa Martinez
“I'm going to take Melissa Martinez by decision”
PP
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Melissa Martinez VALUE
“I like Melissa Martinez I like pan plus three and a half”
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Melissa Martinez VALUE
“I like Melissa Martinez I like pan plus three and a half”
AD
All-Star DFS picks Alice Ardelean VALUE
“ardene plus 125 Underdog you have to play it on a card like this just for that alone is there any finishing upside probably not but another fight where I'll play Both Sides uh with a slight preference towards uh ardene”
$2.25
All-Star DFS picks Alice Ardelean VALUE
“ardene plus 125 Underdog you have to play it on a card like this just for that alone is there any finishing upside probably not but another fight where I'll play Both Sides uh with a slight preference towards uh ardene”
$2.25
CM
Coty MMA picks Alice Ardelean VALUE
“I'm on the underdog here I got Alice Ardelean Ardelean plus 130”
$2.30
Coty MMA picks Alice Ardelean VALUE
“I'm on the underdog here I got Alice Ardelean Ardelean plus 130”
$2.30
WP
We Want Picks picks Alice Ardelean VALUE
“I do think she wins”
We Want Picks picks Alice Ardelean VALUE
“I do think she wins”
BO
Botmfeeder picks Melissa Martinez VALUE
“first one going is Melissa Martinez money minus 125”
$1.80
Botmfeeder picks Melissa Martinez VALUE
“first one going is Melissa Martinez money minus 125”
$1.80
LM
LazyAss MMA picks Melissa Martinez
“I'm going to go with Melissa Martinez Martinez because her record is s and one and Alice Alice Ardelean she is 9 and six which is a really bad record”
LazyAss MMA picks Melissa Martinez
“I'm going to go with Melissa Martinez Martinez because her record is s and one and Alice Alice Ardelean she is 9 and six which is a really bad record”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Alice Ardelean VALUE
“Alice Ardelean 7,800 another fighter with a path here money's actually came in on ardene in terms of the money lines closed up quite a bit um going against Melissa Martinez who's a very good Striker but the ground game is is certainly in question we actually saw Elise Reed take down Melissa Martinez multiple times in their fight and if Elise Reed's taking it down at least AR ellene probably is able to as well with that said that we haven't seen Martinez in a couple years so maybe she's made some improvements but uh if not like ellene has a path and not only win here but you know get takedowns get control time and put up a decent score at 7,800”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Alice Ardelean VALUE
“Alice Ardelean 7,800 another fighter with a path here money's actually came in on ardene in terms of the money lines closed up quite a bit um going against Melissa Martinez who's a very good Striker but the ground game is is certainly in question we actually saw Elise Reed take down Melissa Martinez multiple times in their fight and if Elise Reed's taking it down at least AR ellene probably is able to as well with that said that we haven't seen Martinez in a couple years so maybe she's made some improvements but uh if not like ellene has a path and not only win here but you know get takedowns get control time and put up a decent score at 7,800”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Melissa Martinez
“going against Melissa Martinez who's a very good Striker but the ground game is is certainly in question”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Melissa Martinez
“going against Melissa Martinez who's a very good Striker but the ground game is is certainly in question”
MN
MMA Lock of the Night picks Alice Ardelean VALUE
“I think Alice Ardelean is not a bad Underdog in this second fight as I believe she should be able to Wrangle Martinez drag her to the ground and keep her in uncomfortable positions as long as she showcases a little bit more of an assertive approach like she did in the first and second round of the last matchup she should be able to get the win here and win this fight on the scorecards”
MMA Lock of the Night picks Alice Ardelean VALUE
“I think Alice Ardelean is not a bad Underdog in this second fight as I believe she should be able to Wrangle Martinez drag her to the ground and keep her in uncomfortable positions as long as she showcases a little bit more of an assertive approach like she did in the first and second round of the last matchup she should be able to get the win here and win this fight on the scorecards”
MA
MMA AJ picks Melissa Martinez
“I think I'll go with there the favorite”
MMA AJ picks Melissa Martinez
“I think I'll go with there the favorite”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Martinez8-1
L
Kline
Jul '25
W
Ardelean
Oct '24
L
Reed
Sep '22
Ardelean12-7
W
Viana
May '26
W
Ruiz
Nov '25
W
Santos
May '25
L
Martinez
Oct '24
L
Bannon
Jul '24