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Almabayev vs NicolauPreliminary Card · Flyweight
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Reed vs PennePreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
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Hernandez vs PereiraMain Card · Middleweight
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KP
Font vs PhillipsMain Card · Bantamweight
CJ
SM
Johnson vs MudaerjiMain Card · Flyweight
CS
JH
Smotherman vs HadleyMain Card · Bantamweight
DE
DP
Elkins vs PinedaMain Card · Featherweight
AA
MN
Almabayev vs NicolauPreliminary Card · Flyweight
JM
BK
Matsumoto vs KatonaPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
JE
TV
Edwards vs VidalPreliminary Card · Catchweight
ER
JP
Reed vs PennePreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
MM
AA
Martinez vs ArdeleanPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
AL
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Lane vs DespaignePreliminary Card · Heavyweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Almabayev v Nicolau
Flyweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Almabayev 23-3
VS
19-6-1 Nicolau
5'4"
height
5'6"
125 lb
weight
125 lb
65"
reach
66"
32
age
33
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
2.1
strikes landed / min
3.3
56%
striking accuracy
51%
1.0
strikes absorbed / min
3.0
59%
striking defence
65%
5.1
takedowns / 15 min
1.2
50%
takedown accuracy
43%
50%
takedown defence
90%
1.7
submissions / 15 min
0.8
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
CP
Capper Comparison Picks picks Asu Almabayev
“I settled on ASU amayev I think think he's going to be able to uh”
$1.44
Capper Comparison Picks picks Asu Almabayev
“I settled on ASU amayev I think think he's going to be able to uh”
$1.44
PP
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Matheus Nicolau VALUE
“I like Matheus Nicolau who just got smoked ... I think this a winnable fight for him ... official pick for this fight I think I'm buy wins a decision ... I like Matheus Nicolau plus three and a half”
Pick Pocket Podcast picks Matheus Nicolau VALUE
“I like Matheus Nicolau who just got smoked ... I think this a winnable fight for him ... official pick for this fight I think I'm buy wins a decision ... I like Matheus Nicolau plus three and a half”
KU
Kunath picks Asu Almabayev
“you can grab Asu Almabayev I think that Charles Johnson's going to get a little bit of love”
Kunath picks Asu Almabayev
“you can grab Asu Almabayev I think that Charles Johnson's going to get a little bit of love”
MM
MMAWeekly.com picks Asu Almabayev
“14th ranked at25 lbs Asu Almabayev takes on the seventh ranked Matheus Nicolau”
MMAWeekly.com picks Asu Almabayev
“14th ranked at25 lbs Asu Almabayev takes on the seventh ranked Matheus Nicolau”
MC
MMA Vulture Clips picks Asu Almabayev VALUE
“give me ASU alv to beat him and that's sitting at a negative 131”
$1.45
MMA Vulture Clips picks Asu Almabayev VALUE
“give me ASU alv to beat him and that's sitting at a negative 131”
$1.45
CM
Coty MMA picks Asu Almabayev
“I think U wins”
Coty MMA picks Asu Almabayev
“I think U wins”
TP
Touch 'Em Up Podcast picks Asu Almabayev VALUE
“even though my pick is Asu Almabayev”
Touch 'Em Up Podcast picks Asu Almabayev VALUE
“even though my pick is Asu Almabayev”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Asu Almabayev VALUE
“I'm picking alv with some relative confidence here that he's going to be able to put it on Maas Nichol”
$1.45
MMA EXPERTS picks Asu Almabayev VALUE
“I'm picking alv with some relative confidence here that he's going to be able to put it on Maas Nichol”
$1.45
I9
i9ines picks Asu Almabayev VALUE
“I think this is going to be another one for him I think Matas is going to shoot down even further down to like the bottom eight and Asu Almabayev is going to uh you know catapult himself up as a prospect”
i9ines picks Asu Almabayev VALUE
“I think this is going to be another one for him I think Matas is going to shoot down even further down to like the bottom eight and Asu Almabayev is going to uh you know catapult himself up as a prospect”
WT
WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Matheus Nicolau VALUE
“I'm taking Maas Nicola to get the job done”
$2.45
WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Matheus Nicolau VALUE
“I'm taking Maas Nicola to get the job done”
$2.45
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Almabayev23-3
W
Johnson
Jun '26
W
Perez
Nov '25
W
Ochoa
Jul '25
L
Kape
Mar '25
W
Nicolau
Oct '24
Nicolau19-6-1
L
Almabayev
Oct '24
L
Perez
Apr '24
L
Royval
Apr '23
W
Schnell
Dec '22
W
Dvořák
Mar '22