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UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Chiesa v Griffin Welterweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus48 picks · conf 68/99
Chiesa 27
21 Griffin
HUAMAM pick Chiesa
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Chiesa 19-7 VS 20-12 Griffin
6'1" height 5'11"
171 lb weight 170 lb
76" reach 76"
38 age 40
Southpaw stance Orthodox
1.9 strikes landed / min 3.9
40% striking accuracy 49%
1.7 strikes absorbed / min 3.8
53% striking defence 57%
3.4 takedowns / 15 min 1.4
51% takedown accuracy 41%
60% takedown defence 68%
1.0 submissions / 15 min 0.3
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TA TakeDownTalks picks Michael Chiesa “victory Michael Chiesa NOT_IN_ROSTER_6 versus Max Griffin”
RU RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Michael Chiesa “None”
RU RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Max Griffin VALUE “I'm picking Max Griffin”
TD The Rambling Dad picks Max Griffin VALUE “I'm going with Eric Eryk Anders”
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Michael Chiesa “I'm picking Michael Chiesa”
AJ AjTooFresh picks Michael Chiesa “I might have to go with Michael here”
JC Just Facts Combat picks Max Griffin “I'm leaning toward Max Griffin for this fight”
ET Extra Thiccc picks Michael Chiesa VALUE “Michael Chiesa also a dog plus 105” $2.05
WP We Want Picks picks Michael Chiesa VALUE “I think Michael Kessa can squeak out a win here I think he can work in a takedown and I think he can get it done”
HM Hugo Ferraz MMA picks Michael Chiesa VALUE “I'm going with Michael shazza just to pick an underdog”
IL IBG Live picks Michael Chiesa “I got Michael Chiesa”
MN MMA Lock of the Night picks Michael Chiesa “I do have to lean with Griffin's activity as of late as I do think his ability to keep this fight standing and badrick K on the feet will allow him to win this fight on the scor cards”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Chiesa19-7
W Price Submission · R1 Mar '26
W McGee Decision · R3 Jun '25
W Griffin Submission · R3 Dec '24
W Ferguson Submission · R1 Aug '24
L Holland Submission · R1 Jul '23
Griffin20-12
L Valenzuela Decision · R3 Apr '26
L Curtis Decision · R3 Jul '25
L Chiesa Submission · R3 Dec '24
W Wells Decision · R3 Feb '24
L Morales Decision · R3 Jul '23