Choose a fight to analyse
AP
KA
Pantoja vs AsakuraMain Card · Flyweight
SR
IG
Rakhmonov vs GarryMain Card · Welterweight
CG
AV
Gane vs VolkovMain Card · Heavyweight
BM
KG
Mitchell vs GracieMain Card · Featherweight
CD
NL
Doo-ho vs LandwehrMain Card · Featherweight
DR
AS
Reyes vs SmithPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
VL
TG
Luque vs GorimboPreliminary Card · Welterweight
ME
AS
Evloev vs SterlingPreliminary Card · Featherweight
BB
RB
Battle vs BrownPreliminary Card · Catchweight
EA
CW
Anders vs WeidmanEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
JV
CD
Van vs DurdenEarly Preliminary Card · Flyweight
MC
MG
Chiesa vs GriffinEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight
CH
CG
Hooper vs GuidaEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight
KN
ŁB
Nzechukwu vs BrzeskiEarly Preliminary Card · Heavyweight
KA
Pantoja vs AsakuraMain Card · Flyweight
SR
IG
Rakhmonov vs GarryMain Card · Welterweight
CG
AV
Gane vs VolkovMain Card · Heavyweight
BM
KG
Mitchell vs GracieMain Card · Featherweight
CD
NL
Doo-ho vs LandwehrMain Card · Featherweight
DR
AS
Reyes vs SmithPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
VL
TG
Luque vs GorimboPreliminary Card · Welterweight
ME
AS
Evloev vs SterlingPreliminary Card · Featherweight
BB
RB
Battle vs BrownPreliminary Card · Catchweight
EA
CW
Anders vs WeidmanEarly Preliminary Card · Catchweight
JV
CD
Van vs DurdenEarly Preliminary Card · Flyweight
MC
MG
Chiesa vs GriffinEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight
CH
CG
Hooper vs GuidaEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight
KN
ŁB
Nzechukwu vs BrzeskiEarly Preliminary Card · Heavyweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Rakhmonov v Machado Garry
Welterweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
Go Pro →
New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker
Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Rakhmonov 18-0
VS
15-0 Machado Garry
6'1"
height
6'3"
171 lb
weight
171 lb
77"
reach
74"
31
age
28
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
4.1
strikes landed / min
5.5
61%
striking accuracy
55%
2.4
strikes absorbed / min
3.2
51%
striking defence
52%
1.5
takedowns / 15 min
0.8
29%
takedown accuracy
55%
100%
takedown defence
69%
1.8
submissions / 15 min
0.3
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
Go Pro →
Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
RU
RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Shavkat Rakhmonov
“None”
RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Shavkat Rakhmonov
“None”
RU
RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Ian Machado Garry VALUE
“Ian Machado Garry to win it”
RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Ian Machado Garry VALUE
“Ian Machado Garry to win it”
CP
Capper Comparison Picks picks Shavkat Rakhmonov
“I got Shavkat Rakhmonov winning this ... I'm picking Shavkat Rakhmonov”
Capper Comparison Picks picks Shavkat Rakhmonov
“I got Shavkat Rakhmonov winning this ... I'm picking Shavkat Rakhmonov”
EM
Elijah House MMA picks Shavkat Rakhmonov VALUE
“I do think Shavkat Rakhmonov gets it done just by off what we've seen through their skills I think it's very even to skill but I give a side advantage to Shava I just think his grappling is too good I think Shavkat Rakhmonov will struggle to get him the down but I do think he'll get him in the later rounds like first three rounds is how I see it going I think they're going to be on the feet the whole like start of the fight first couple rounds I don't think we're see any take attempts we might but I don't think he'll get it either one of them will get it um cuz shka is the most overrated fight in the you see getting off he's not going to take in Bryce Mitchell down probably he like he could but I doubt it andless he just Spam shoots it but I do think he'll get later rounds but to start off like I do think they're just going to exchange in Striking I think it's be very even I think slight advantage to shot shot's just a good Striker Bryce Mitchell showed that he could not strike at all when he fought MVP and was forced to grapples that's why I say that but in the later rounds I think they're both going to fatigue because they are not great but they are decent and I do think shaa is going to get some takedowns and that's where his wring given him but this is where I wouldn't be surprised this why I want speak first of all in confidence is very good this guy does not care anything but Bryce Mitchell's um grappling could have been improv he's been working with all G Burns those Brazilians he we could see some improvements with Bryce Mitchell I mean shot's got so many submission wins I mean it's hard to think I know they're over nobody's but I mean sha cot I do think still has the grapple advantage of course and I think the grappling is going to what gets it done at the end in a very sloppy last two rounds but I am going Shan very and finally we got the main event Alexandre Alexandre Pantoja versus Kai Asakura yeah I've been thinking about this fight a lot rethinking it I'm going panto by a decision but I'm not going to be shocked if Kai skur pulls it off obviously this guy didn't deserve a tile shot at all in the first place you don't get a tile shot on your debut that's absolutely crazy but I just don't think he's ready for this I really don't think the whatever League he was fighting in is not UFC talent and he's not going to be ready for this just get a title shot andoa is so good most underrated Champion by far right now uh he's very well-rounded great Grappler he's decent Striker and he's just really hard to beat this guy's not going to let you beat him I think he's just going to outwork him like I said he's going to outwork him aura's got a great Striker I'll give him that and it's very possible he catches Alexandre Pantoja knocks him out but I don't think he'll get it done B is just too good too much experience in the UFC octagon and I think he's just going to outwork him use the grapp Ling I think Ker's got great t on defense but he's going to struggle I think he's going to panic under pressure just not ready for the UFC he's going to grapp him and he's going to control him possibly get a submission win maybe ground and pound win cuz he needs to get a finish um in fact I would not be surprised if Pantoja gets a finish I mean we might see one but I do think he goes the distance I think those last two rounds panto is just going to bully him scur is going to be tired Alexandre Pantoja is going to be tired too that's where Kai Asakura could catch him and knock him out but I just don't think we're going to see it happen I think Alexandre Pantoja is too experience he's fought so much good Fighters and he's cleared out the flight Division I just don't think we're going to see anything great from Kai Asakura y'all are going to hate on me I don't know why what you see this guy but gets it done he's just too good and yeah this is going to wrap it up for the re I mean prediction video um hopefully I go five for five um I hope yall listen to me CU if y'all know me and follow me you know that I know ball and if yall are betting on it I highly recommend you listen to everything I've pointed out and yeah make sure youall please subscribe like And subscribe and put on notifications on when I post videos cuz we're going to be posting a lot starting 2025 but I'll see you all on Sunday for the recap video yeah”
Elijah House MMA picks Shavkat Rakhmonov VALUE
“I do think Shavkat Rakhmonov gets it done just by off what we've seen through their skills I think it's very even to skill but I give a side advantage to Shava I just think his grappling is too good I think Shavkat Rakhmonov will struggle to get him the down but I do think he'll get him in the later rounds like first three rounds is how I see it going I think they're going to be on the feet the whole like start of the fight first couple rounds I don't think we're see any take attempts we might but I don't think he'll get it either one of them will get it um cuz shka is the most overrated fight in the you see getting off he's not going to take in Bryce Mitchell down probably he like he could but I doubt it andless he just Spam shoots it but I do think he'll get later rounds but to start off like I do think they're just going to exchange in Striking I think it's be very even I think slight advantage to shot shot's just a good Striker Bryce Mitchell showed that he could not strike at all when he fought MVP and was forced to grapples that's why I say that but in the later rounds I think they're both going to fatigue because they are not great but they are decent and I do think shaa is going to get some takedowns and that's where his wring given him but this is where I wouldn't be surprised this why I want speak first of all in confidence is very good this guy does not care anything but Bryce Mitchell's um grappling could have been improv he's been working with all G Burns those Brazilians he we could see some improvements with Bryce Mitchell I mean shot's got so many submission wins I mean it's hard to think I know they're over nobody's but I mean sha cot I do think still has the grapple advantage of course and I think the grappling is going to what gets it done at the end in a very sloppy last two rounds but I am going Shan very and finally we got the main event Alexandre Alexandre Pantoja versus Kai Asakura yeah I've been thinking about this fight a lot rethinking it I'm going panto by a decision but I'm not going to be shocked if Kai skur pulls it off obviously this guy didn't deserve a tile shot at all in the first place you don't get a tile shot on your debut that's absolutely crazy but I just don't think he's ready for this I really don't think the whatever League he was fighting in is not UFC talent and he's not going to be ready for this just get a title shot andoa is so good most underrated Champion by far right now uh he's very well-rounded great Grappler he's decent Striker and he's just really hard to beat this guy's not going to let you beat him I think he's just going to outwork him like I said he's going to outwork him aura's got a great Striker I'll give him that and it's very possible he catches Alexandre Pantoja knocks him out but I don't think he'll get it done B is just too good too much experience in the UFC octagon and I think he's just going to outwork him use the grapp Ling I think Ker's got great t on defense but he's going to struggle I think he's going to panic under pressure just not ready for the UFC he's going to grapp him and he's going to control him possibly get a submission win maybe ground and pound win cuz he needs to get a finish um in fact I would not be surprised if Pantoja gets a finish I mean we might see one but I do think he goes the distance I think those last two rounds panto is just going to bully him scur is going to be tired Alexandre Pantoja is going to be tired too that's where Kai Asakura could catch him and knock him out but I just don't think we're going to see it happen I think Alexandre Pantoja is too experience he's fought so much good Fighters and he's cleared out the flight Division I just don't think we're going to see anything great from Kai Asakura y'all are going to hate on me I don't know why what you see this guy but gets it done he's just too good and yeah this is going to wrap it up for the re I mean prediction video um hopefully I go five for five um I hope yall listen to me CU if y'all know me and follow me you know that I know ball and if yall are betting on it I highly recommend you listen to everything I've pointed out and yeah make sure youall please subscribe like And subscribe and put on notifications on when I post videos cuz we're going to be posting a lot starting 2025 but I'll see you all on Sunday for the recap video yeah”
EB
ESPN BET picks Shavkat Rakhmonov VALUE
“I'm going to take shavkat to win an over one and a half round”
$1.26
ESPN BET picks Shavkat Rakhmonov VALUE
“I'm going to take shavkat to win an over one and a half round”
$1.26
EB
ESPN BET picks Ian Machado Garry
“I think Ian Machado Garry's a stud I think him taking this fight speaks volumes”
$3.90
ESPN BET picks Ian Machado Garry
“I think Ian Machado Garry's a stud I think him taking this fight speaks volumes”
$3.90
_O
_Octagon_Insights_ picks Shavkat Rakhmonov
“next I'm choosing shavkat rockov to defeat Ian Machado Garry”
_Octagon_Insights_ picks Shavkat Rakhmonov
“next I'm choosing shavkat rockov to defeat Ian Machado Garry”
AM
Ain't No Way MMA picks Shavkat Rakhmonov VALUE
“I've got Shavkat Rakhmonov event”
Ain't No Way MMA picks Shavkat Rakhmonov VALUE
“I've got Shavkat Rakhmonov event”
AJ
AjTooFresh picks Shavkat Rakhmonov
“I am going to go have to go with Shavkat Rakhmonov here”
AjTooFresh picks Shavkat Rakhmonov
“I am going to go have to go with Shavkat Rakhmonov here”
UT
UFC Addict TV picks Shavkat Rakhmonov
“I think rock manov wins the fight I don't know the metChoi Doo-hod I'm not confident in the metChoi Doo-hod I don't know if there's gonna be a finish but I think he's overall just going to win the fight”
UFC Addict TV picks Shavkat Rakhmonov
“I think rock manov wins the fight I don't know the metChoi Doo-hod I'm not confident in the metChoi Doo-hod I don't know if there's gonna be a finish but I think he's overall just going to win the fight”
NM
Nipple to Nipple MMA picks Shavkat Rakhmonov
“for me it's going to be Shavkat Rakhmonov Shavkat Rakhmonov definitely on this one”
$2.80
Nipple to Nipple MMA picks Shavkat Rakhmonov
“for me it's going to be Shavkat Rakhmonov Shavkat Rakhmonov definitely on this one”
$2.80
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Rakhmonov18-0
W
Garry
Dec '24
W
Thompson
Dec '23
W
Neal
Mar '23
W
Magny
Jun '22
W
Harris
Feb '22
Machado Garry15-0
W
Muhammad
Nov '25
W
Prates
Apr '25
L
Rakhmonov
Dec '24
W
Page
Jun '24
W
Neal
Feb '24