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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Topuria v Thicknesse
Bantamweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Topuria 5-1
VS
8-1 Thicknesse
5'7"
height
5'7"
135 lb
weight
135 lb
68"
reach
69"
30
age
27
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
0.0
strikes landed / min
2.5
0%
striking accuracy
50%
0.0
strikes absorbed / min
3.7
0%
striking defence
69%
0.0
takedowns / 15 min
0.7
0%
takedown accuracy
25%
0%
takedown defence
76%
0.0
submissions / 15 min
0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
OS
Once Upon A Slugfest picks Aleksandre Topuria VALUE
“I picked to Poria I have my reasons”
Once Upon A Slugfest picks Aleksandre Topuria VALUE
“I picked to Poria I have my reasons”
ML
MMA Lewis picks Aleksandre Topuria
“I'm going to have to pick him here in this one”
MMA Lewis picks Aleksandre Topuria
“I'm going to have to pick him here in this one”
JC
Joan's MMA Corner picks Aleksandre Topuria
“I'm going for Aleksandre Topuria”
Joan's MMA Corner picks Aleksandre Topuria
“I'm going for Aleksandre Topuria”
FM
FATALITY MMA picks Aleksandre Topuria
“I'm going to take the Aleksandre Topuria brother if you look at Aleksandre Topuria is it Aleksandre Topuria I don't know if you look at tor's record the one loss he has on his record is to someone who had a huge size advantage over him some guy who's like very it looked like he was like on every steroid under the sun he took like a 5year break after that and then he just rolled through everybody else people make fun of him because the records of the guys that he's fought haven't been very good but he's steamrolled all of them to be fair like it hasn't been something where like oh he's fighting like cans and he's like going tit fortat with him no like he's lit doing whatever the [ __ ] he wants to these guys the only time that we've seen Aleksandre Topuria struggle is against a guy who has kind of a size advantage against him and is more physically imposing look at these two guys you know like thess has mixed in takedowns before but tapua has a the same wrestling background as his brother Ilia so I don't really hold much value to the kind of grappling ex changes because I think Aleksandre Topuria is I think he'll probably be the better Grappler in this matchup I think - 375 might be a little bit crazy but we'll see I guess first fun fight on the card took a little while but 6 out of 10 because uh who knows”
$1.27
FATALITY MMA picks Aleksandre Topuria
“I'm going to take the Aleksandre Topuria brother if you look at Aleksandre Topuria is it Aleksandre Topuria I don't know if you look at tor's record the one loss he has on his record is to someone who had a huge size advantage over him some guy who's like very it looked like he was like on every steroid under the sun he took like a 5year break after that and then he just rolled through everybody else people make fun of him because the records of the guys that he's fought haven't been very good but he's steamrolled all of them to be fair like it hasn't been something where like oh he's fighting like cans and he's like going tit fortat with him no like he's lit doing whatever the [ __ ] he wants to these guys the only time that we've seen Aleksandre Topuria struggle is against a guy who has kind of a size advantage against him and is more physically imposing look at these two guys you know like thess has mixed in takedowns before but tapua has a the same wrestling background as his brother Ilia so I don't really hold much value to the kind of grappling ex changes because I think Aleksandre Topuria is I think he'll probably be the better Grappler in this matchup I think - 375 might be a little bit crazy but we'll see I guess first fun fight on the card took a little while but 6 out of 10 because uh who knows”
$1.27
KU
Kunath picks Colby Thicknesse VALUE
“if you want to go with him if this fight gets extended we might see choreia start to gas start to fade and that's when a $6,900 Colby Thicknesse would be a good play”
Kunath picks Colby Thicknesse VALUE
“if you want to go with him if this fight gets extended we might see choreia start to gas start to fade and that's when a $6,900 Colby Thicknesse would be a good play”
SL
SUPER LUTAS picks Aleksandre Topuria VALUE
“vitória do Aleksandre Topuria pagando 1:24”
SUPER LUTAS picks Aleksandre Topuria VALUE
“vitória do Aleksandre Topuria pagando 1:24”
FR
FREESTYLEBENDER picks Colby Thicknesse
“I think Colby Thicknesse's going to do well um I don't know too much about Aleksandre Topuriaander Toria”
FREESTYLEBENDER picks Colby Thicknesse
“I think Colby Thicknesse's going to do well um I don't know too much about Aleksandre Topuriaander Toria”
LE
LAS 8 ESQUINAS picks Aleksandre Topuria VALUE
“yo lo veo ganar Quizás hasta en el primer round”
LAS 8 ESQUINAS picks Aleksandre Topuria VALUE
“yo lo veo ganar Quizás hasta en el primer round”
MM
Menace and The Man picks Aleksandre Topuria
“you got to go Aleksandre Topuria”
Menace and The Man picks Aleksandre Topuria
“you got to go Aleksandre Topuria”
LM
Leftlane MMA picks Aleksandre Topuria VALUE
“so yeah I'm going to be picking top Toro to win I'm going to just make him a lock just for the sake of it just off Vibes you know cuz I don't want to just stat pad the locks thing and just make it all like minus 500 even though he is a big favorite he shouldn't be um but I don't know top Toro he's probably pretty good”
Leftlane MMA picks Aleksandre Topuria VALUE
“so yeah I'm going to be picking top Toro to win I'm going to just make him a lock just for the sake of it just off Vibes you know cuz I don't want to just stat pad the locks thing and just make it all like minus 500 even though he is a big favorite he shouldn't be um but I don't know top Toro he's probably pretty good”
P®
Pro Schmo BETS ® picks Aleksandre Topuria
“Alexander Aleksandre Topuria on the money line if you're doing anything otherwise you're out of your mind”
Pro Schmo BETS ® picks Aleksandre Topuria
“Alexander Aleksandre Topuria on the money line if you're doing anything otherwise you're out of your mind”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Topuria5-1
W
Almakhan
Nov '25
W
Thicknesse
Feb '25
Thicknesse8-1
W
Morales
May '26
W
Musasa
Sep '25
L
Topuria
Feb '25