Jake Matthews vs Francisco Prado · Fight IQ

UFC 312: du Plessis vs. Strickland 2

Choose a fight to analyse

Plessis vs StricklandMain Card · Middleweight ZW

Weili vs SuarezMain Card · Women'S Strawweight TT

Teixeira vs TafaMain Card · Heavyweight JC

Crute vs BellatoMain Card · Light Heavyweight JM

Matthews vs PradoMain Card · Welterweight GS

Santos vs JenkinsPreliminary Card · Featherweight TN

Nolan vs BorshchevPreliminary Card · Lightweight WC

Cong vs BrasilPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight AT

Topuria vs ThicknessePreliminary Card · Bantamweight RZ

Zhu vs SteeleEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight JM

Micallef vs JoussetEarly Preliminary Card · Welterweight QS

Salkilld vs JubliEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight

BEST PRICE Prophecy read Matthews v Prado Welterweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side

The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →

New here? Create a free account for the full leaderboard & bet tracker

Consensus94 picks · conf 83/99

Matthews 62

32 Prado

pick Matthews

Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side

Matthews 22-8 VS 12-4 Prado

5'11" height 5'10"

170 lb weight 170 lb

73" reach 69"

31 age 24

Orthodox stance Orthodox

5.9 strikes landed / min 4.6

41% striking accuracy 41%

2.6 strikes absorbed / min 5.7

47% striking defence 52%

2.2 takedowns / 15 min 0.0

40% takedown accuracy 0%

50% takedown defence 25%

1.8 submissions / 15 min 0.4

The model read

Deep research · camps & rumours

AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.

What the numbers say

Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.

Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →

Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight

Once Upon A Slugfest picks Jake Matthews “my subscribers and I went with um Jake Matthews” $1.45

MMA Lewis picks Jake Matthews “so I'm going have to go with Jake Matthewss”

Pick Pocket Podcast picks Francisco Prado VALUE $3.00

Pick Pocket Podcast picks Jake Matthews

Knuckles MMA picks Jake Matthews “I have Jake Matthews winning this fight by either um a late round TKO a late third round TKO to be specific or um maybe a split decision”

etoft21 sports picks Jake Matthews VALUE “I'm going with Jake Matthews, probably by TKO”

etoft21 sports picks Francisco Prado VALUE “I'm taking Francisco Prado”

FATALITY MMA picks Jake Matthews “I'll take Jake Matthews he's more technical Francisco pra doesn't have finishing ability should stay standing Jake Matthews in his home spot”