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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Oliveira v Nurmagomedov Bantamweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus74 picks · conf 77/99
Oliveira 43
31 Nurmagomedov
UDTEOC pick Oliveira
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Oliveira 23-4 VS 18-5 Nurmagomedov
5'9" height 5'8"
145 lb weight 136 lb
70" reach 70"
30 age 34
Switch stance Orthodox
5.9 strikes landed / min 3.5
43% striking accuracy 47%
2.9 strikes absorbed / min 2.1
53% striking defence 57%
1.4 takedowns / 15 min 1.0
60% takedown accuracy 16%
68% takedown defence 66%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 1.4
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
MJ MMA JOEY picks Vinicius Oliveira “venicius alera wins via decision”
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Said Nurmagomedov “my subscribers and I went with um sov” $1.54
US Uselyis picks Said Nurmagomedov VALUE “give me n off by points at a plus 135 let me know what you guys think I think nof should be able to win this fight by unanimous decision it's going to be one of those fights where KH Oley is going to be able to perform way better than he did against Myron Santos” $2.35
BY ByoneWorld picks Vinicius Oliveira VALUE “Said Nurmagomedov versus Vinicius Oliveira”
NO NotSoLethal picks Vinicius Oliveira VALUE “we're going to go Terence mckin I think Terrance McKinney chinSaid Nurmagomedov him I'm going to go Terrance McKinney by TKO”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Vinicius Oliveira VALUE “venicius Vinicius Oliveira is destined to outd doog Said Nurmagomedov” $2.30
LE LAS 8 ESQUINAS picks Said Nurmagomedov VALUE “siento que esit magomedov se le van a a dar las cosas” $1.06
NC Nick Cieslak picks Vinicius Oliveira “I'm going to go Sayer magedov but I really like what I'm seeing as of Lately from venicius Olivera”
CU Combat Sports UK picks Vinicius Oliveira VALUE “I think Vinicius Oliveira is coming to this with such a great bit of momentum for Sharabutdin Magomedov like it's a fight he needs to prove himself in to be honest”
CM Crashout MMA picks Vinicius Oliveira “I'm gonna say Vinicius Oliveira is gonna win”
UP UFC Bro Picks picks Vinicius Oliveira VALUE “I got two units on Vinicius Oliveira at plus 58 I like Vinicius Oliveira a lot” $1.58
HT HTMMA picks Vinicius Oliveira “I'm going to be going with venius Oliva to get the job done and ... that is why I've got vicius Oliva by either third round TKO or unanimous decision against s nurmagamedov” $1.74
Recent form last five, most recent first
Oliveira23-4
W Fili KO/TKO · R2 Jun '26
L Bautista Submission · R2 Feb '26
W Phillips Decision · R3 Jul '25
W Nurmagomedov Decision · R3 Feb '25
W Simón Decision · R3 Jun '24
Nurmagomedov18-5
L Mitchell Decision · R3 Jul '25
L Oliveira Decision · R3 Feb '25
W Gafurov Submission · R1 Oct '23
L Martinez Decision · R3 Mar '23
W Kakhramonov Submission · R2 Dec '22