MMA Prophecy
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UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Schnell v Costa Catchweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus182 picks · conf 99/99
Schnell 12
170 Costa
CEJMMF pick Schnell
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Schnell 17-10 VS 15-5 Costa
5'8" height 5'4"
126 lb weight 125 lb
70" reach 67"
36 age 30
Orthodox stance Orthodox
4.4 strikes landed / min 4.2
39% striking accuracy 48%
4.6 strikes absorbed / min 4.1
55% striking defence 62%
0.6 takedowns / 15 min 2.9
40% takedown accuracy 54%
50% takedown defence 69%
1.0 submissions / 15 min 0.4
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
MF Matt’Or Fact picks Alessandro Costa “I've got Alessandro Costa.”
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Alessandro Costa “we would have to pick Alessandro Costa to win by KO/TKO.”
TP The Franchise Player picks Alessandro Costa “Uh he should finish him in the first two rounds. ... I'm going to take Alessandro Alessandro Costa by finish atus 360.”
NA NarcoCopMMA picks Alessandro Costa “I'm going to give out sub, just sub in general.”
AM Acolyte MMA picks Alessandro Costa “I'm going go with Alessandro Costa via a KO in round one.”
JA JakeGerberMMA picks Alessandro Costa “Alessandro Costa, he's going to run through Mach Matt Schnell.”
JA JakeGerberMMA picks Matt Schnell “Matt Schnell. I think he knocks him out in stops Matt Schnell within the first two Alessandro Costa”
MT MMA Tugg picks Alessandro Costa “Lock number one, Alessandro Costa, he's not losing.”
TC The Finz Chats picks Alessandro Costa VALUE “I'm going with Alessandro Costa to win this fight by submission. I got a half unit on a subprop plus 460.” $5.60
WP We Want Picks picks Alessandro Costa “Alessandro Costa should knock him out”
TB The Barnhill Brothers picks Alessandro Costa “I think that we're looking at a a TKO victory for Alessandro Costa.”
RX RX picks Alessandro Costa “Give me alandro Alessandro Costa my knock out in first”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Schnell17-10
L Costa KO/TKO · R1 Jun '26
L Morales Submission · R1 Nov '25
W Flick Decision · R3 Apr '25
L Durden Submission · R2 Sep '24
L Erceg KO/TKO · R2 Mar '24
Costa15-5
W Schnell KO/TKO · R1 Jun '26
W Nicoll KO/TKO · R2 Apr '26
L Coria KO/TKO · R3 Sep '25
W Borjas KO/TKO · R2 May '24
L Erceg Decision · R3 Nov '23