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Moicano vs DuncanMain Card · Lightweight
VJ
TR
Jandiroba vs RicciMain Card · Women'S Strawweight
AY
BR
Yakhyaev vs RibeiroMain Card · Light Heavyweight
EE
RE
Ewing vs EstevamMain Card · Catchweight
TM
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McMillen vs ZecchiniMain Card · Featherweight
GP
TP
Pat vs PetersenPreliminary Card · Heavyweight
JD
RR
Delano vs RuchałaMain Card · Featherweight
AC
SN
Costa vs NicollPreliminary Card · Flyweight
LV
DF
Vannata vs FlowersPreliminary Card · Catchweight
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HC
Pereira vs CowanPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
AB
TG
Bekoev vs GorePreliminary Card · Middleweight
DB
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Barbosa vs GattoPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Moicano v Duncan
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Moicano 20-7-1
VS
15-2 Duncan
5'11"
height
5'10"
155 lb
weight
156 lb
72"
reach
71"
37
age
33
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
4.4
strikes landed / min
4.7
49%
striking accuracy
46%
3.6
strikes absorbed / min
4.0
60%
striking defence
48%
1.9
takedowns / 15 min
3.5
44%
takedown accuracy
37%
72%
takedown defence
33%
0.6
submissions / 15 min
0.3
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
IT
itsLukas picks Renato Moicano VALUE
“I think Renato Moicano is too survive”
itsLukas picks Renato Moicano VALUE
“I think Renato Moicano is too survive”
IM
Industry Plant MMA picks Chris Duncan VALUE
“I think Chris Duncan gets up at the end Renato Moicano on the ground Duncan's younger. Chris Duncan is more hungry. Chris Duncan's way better on the feet.”
Industry Plant MMA picks Chris Duncan VALUE
“I think Chris Duncan gets up at the end Renato Moicano on the ground Duncan's younger. Chris Duncan is more hungry. Chris Duncan's way better on the feet.”
SM
Surnett MMA picks Chris Duncan VALUE
“I'm going to go with Manolo Zecchini. Manolo Zecchini by sub in Manolo Zecchini just because of experience. Chris Duncan knock out in rounds two or”
Surnett MMA picks Chris Duncan VALUE
“I'm going to go with Manolo Zecchini. Manolo Zecchini by sub in Manolo Zecchini just because of experience. Chris Duncan knock out in rounds two or”
RA
RameiMMA picks Renato Moicano VALUE
“I am feeling a Renato Hanato Renato Moicano submission”
RameiMMA picks Renato Moicano VALUE
“I am feeling a Renato Hanato Renato Moicano submission”
GM
GLO MMA picks Chris Duncan VALUE
“I feel like he's going to be able to hit Muayana with a one-two cross down the pipe in the second round”
GLO MMA picks Chris Duncan VALUE
“I feel like he's going to be able to hit Muayana with a one-two cross down the pipe in the second round”
CA
CasualMMA picks Chris Duncan VALUE
“Chris Duncan is going to do what he does best. He's going to move forward. He's going to zombie his way towards Renato Moicano... I believe it's going to be fireworks... I can actually see Chris Duncan getting the TKO on the feet”
CasualMMA picks Chris Duncan VALUE
“Chris Duncan is going to do what he does best. He's going to move forward. He's going to zombie his way towards Renato Moicano... I believe it's going to be fireworks... I can actually see Chris Duncan getting the TKO on the feet”
SM
Simple MMA picks Chris Duncan VALUE
“I'm going to fade my boy Renato Mo. So give me Chris Duncan honestly by third round TKO.”
Simple MMA picks Chris Duncan VALUE
“I'm going to fade my boy Renato Mo. So give me Chris Duncan honestly by third round TKO.”
SA
Stoic Athlete picks Chris Duncan VALUE
“Chris Duncan is very good ... I think he's going to win this fight as well.”
Stoic Athlete picks Chris Duncan VALUE
“Chris Duncan is very good ... I think he's going to win this fight as well.”
RH
RHYTHMBETZ picks Renato Moicano
“Renato Moicano submission Renato Moicano inside the distance.”
RHYTHMBETZ picks Renato Moicano
“Renato Moicano submission Renato Moicano inside the distance.”
JE
JetChaosMMA picks Chris Duncan VALUE
“I'm going to go Chris Duncan here”
JetChaosMMA picks Chris Duncan VALUE
“I'm going to go Chris Duncan here”
CM
Crashout MMA picks Chris Duncan VALUE
“I think NOT_IN_ROSTER_11 is going to be beat Chris Duncan. I think he's going to beat him by finish. I think he's either going to choke him or he's going to win a TKO.”
Crashout MMA picks Chris Duncan VALUE
“I think NOT_IN_ROSTER_11 is going to be beat Chris Duncan. I think he's going to beat him by finish. I think he's either going to choke him or he's going to win a TKO.”
TW
The MMA Way picks Chris Duncan VALUE
“Give me Chris Duncan. That's such an easy parlay. Chris Duncan so easy. But I don't think Chris Duncan is the the greatest thing in the world, but he's better... He's better. He's overall better.”
The MMA Way picks Chris Duncan VALUE
“Give me Chris Duncan. That's such an easy parlay. Chris Duncan so easy. But I don't think Chris Duncan is the the greatest thing in the world, but he's better... He's better. He's overall better.”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Moicano20-7-1
W
Duncan
Apr '26
L
Dariush
Jun '25
L
Makhachev
Jan '25
W
Denis
Sep '24
W
Turner
Apr '24
Duncan15-2
L
Moicano
Apr '26
W
McKinney
Dec '25
W
Rębecki
Aug '25
W
Vucenic
Mar '25
W
Oki
Sep '24