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UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Maksum v Raposo Catchweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus123 picks · conf 97/99
Maksum 117
6 Raposo
HMCBLP pick Maksum
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Maksum 17-1 VS 10-3 Raposo
5'7" height 5'5"
126 lb weight 125 lb
70" reach 65"
31 age 27
Southpaw stance Switch
2.8 strikes landed / min 2.3
23% striking accuracy 33%
5.2 strikes absorbed / min 3.3
55% striking defence 51%
2.0 takedowns / 15 min 1.9
22% takedown accuracy 60%
66% takedown defence 50%
0.5 submissions / 15 min 0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TD The Rambling Dad picks Mitch Raposo VALUE “I go with Mitch Raposo just based on that.”
AF Alex Talks Fights picks Azat Maksum “so I'm going to go Azat Maksum to get it done. ... can see him winning a decision.” $1.20
DS Dynes Sports picks Azat Maksum “So Azat Maksum all day here for here against Mitch Raposo”
TT The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Azat Maksum VALUE “I do make Azat Maksum a projected value bet here. I make him around -640. I like him.” $1.16
TC The Finz Chats picks Azat Maksum VALUE “Azat Maksum by sub or decision minus 220. I love those odds. ... That has to smack. There's no way that's not hitting. Mitch Raposo is not winning. Azat Maksum's not winning by KO.” $1.45
RX RX picks Azat Maksum “Azat Maksum by submission in the first.”
WM Walk The Line MMA picks Azat Maksum VALUE “I'm going to say that Azat Maksum actually wins a decision here.” $2.00
TH TheWeasle picks Azat Maksum “I'm going to go with Azat Maksum by decision.”
WP We Want Picks picks Azat Maksum “Azat Maksum to me, one more than any win Mitch Raposo has. Azat Maksum is good. He is wild on the feet.”
BY BYJOINTDECISION picks Azat Maksum “My official pick is Azat Maksum by decision.”
FF Four Ounce Fanatic picks Azat Maksum “yeah I am going to pick as a Azat Maksum to get back on track with a 20. I think it's going to be a 30-27 decision win.”
KM Keep it a Buck Media picks Azat Maksum “I'm staying with my Azat Maksum pick... I just saw a lot of good things coming out of Azat Maksum's last fight, so I'm staying with Azat Maksum.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Maksum17-1
L Raposo Decision · R3 Oct '25
L Ulanbekov Decision · R3 Jun '25
L Johnson Decision · R3 Feb '24
W Nam Decision · R3 Jul '23
Raposo10-3
W Nascimento Decision · R3 Jun '26
W Maksum Decision · R3 Oct '25
L Mudaerji Decision · R3 Apr '25
L Lima Decision · R3 Jun '24