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UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Aspinall v Gane Heavyweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus327 picks · conf 99/99
Aspinall 282
45 Gane
DNHFKB pick Aspinall
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Aspinall 15-3 VS 13-2 Gane
6'5" height 6'4"
251 lb weight 248 lb
78" reach 81"
33 age 36
Orthodox stance Orthodox
8.1 strikes landed / min 5.5
67% striking accuracy 60%
2.9 strikes absorbed / min 2.2
65% striking defence 63%
3.3 takedowns / 15 min 0.6
100% takedown accuracy 21%
100% takedown defence 50%
1.6 submissions / 15 min 0.5
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
RU RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Ciryl Gane “Mario Bautista UFC fight against Ciryl Gane”
RU RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Tom Aspinall VALUE “Tom Aspinall 9400”
TD The Rambling Dad picks Tom Aspinall VALUE “Tom Aspinall I do think Tom Aspinall is that guy.”
GM GLO MMA picks Ciryl Gane VALUE “Ciryl Gane he's been dumping Tom for a [ __ ] athletic”
GM GLO MMA picks Tom Aspinall VALUE “Tom Aspinall versus that French Ciryl Gane”
PP Pick Pocket Podcast picks Tom Aspinall VALUE “I think Tom Aspinall is going to get the TKO here. I like him to get a finish here. I think he can even submit zero if he just implements the wrestling as soon as Jon Jones did.”
MC McManusMMA picks Tom Aspinall “Tom Aspinall is winning this fight.”
TH TheBestofMMA picks Tom Aspinall VALUE “Tom Aspinall versus serial Gain at UFC 321 ... Cardi is backing Tom Aspinall to defend his UFC heavyweight title”
_O _Octagon_Insights_ picks Tom Aspinall “And I think in my opinion, Tom Aspinall is going to get it done and early. I think the speed”
KS Kenny White Sports picks Tom Aspinall “Tom Aspinall wins it in the first round.” $2.50
AF Alex Talks Fights picks Ciryl Gane VALUE “but I'm taking Ciryl Gane to win this fight. ... fourth round finish for Ciryl Gane.” $3.95
BS Betting Weekly Studios picks Tom Aspinall “this fight I see it being pretty pretty straightforward for Tom Aspinall. I think he does”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Aspinall15-3
W Blaydes KO/TKO · R1 Jul '24
W Pavlovich KO/TKO · R1 Nov '23
W Tybura KO/TKO · R1 Jul '23
L Blaydes KO/TKO · R1 Jul '22
W Volkov Submission · R1 Mar '22
Gane13-2
W Pereira KO/TKO · R2 Jun '26
W Volkov Decision · R3 Dec '24
W Spivac KO/TKO · R2 Sep '23
L Jones Submission · R1 Mar '23
W Tuivasa KO/TKO · R3 Sep '22