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UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs. Allen
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Nelson v Frevola Lightweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus158 picks · conf 99/99
Nelson 59
99 Frevola
TEALLB pick Nelson
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Nelson 17-6-1 VS 11-5-1 Frevola
5'11" height 5'9"
155 lb weight 155 lb
71" reach 71"
35 age 36
Switch stance Orthodox
2.7 strikes landed / min 4.6
44% striking accuracy 43%
3.6 strikes absorbed / min 3.5
61% striking defence 68%
2.5 takedowns / 15 min 1.0
31% takedown accuracy 70%
56% takedown defence 72%
1.0 submissions / 15 min 1.6
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
KM Keep it a Buck Media picks Kyle Nelson VALUE “I'm going to stay with my Kyle Nelson pick.”
FF Frozen Fists picks Matt Frevola VALUE “I am taking Matt Frevola on this one. Matt Frevola is my pick.”
FF Frozen Fists picks Kyle Nelson VALUE “I'm taking Kyle Nelson.”
MM MMAFightingonSBN picks Matt Frevola “I forgot that fight Matt Frevola, >> Yeah, for the Matt Frevola one caught me off”
WA WARTIMEMMA picks Kyle Nelson “I got Kyle Nelson by KO.”
KU Kunath picks Kyle Nelson “Kyle Nelson's a sneaky be on Kyle Nelson this week”
MF MMA FISHERMAN picks Matt Frevola “I got Matt Frevola.”
RI RightTakeMMA picks Matt Frevola “And I'm going to go with uh Matt Frevola purely off the fact how he's only lost to the best in the division.”
SM Skath MMA picks Matt Frevola “I think Matt Frevola”
CO CozyBoyzMMA picks Kyle Nelson “I got I got Kyle Nelson winning the main card. Kyle Nelson KO.”
FA Faustlife19 picks Kyle Nelson “Kyle Nelson, first round KO.”
TM Teo Talks MMA picks Matt Frevola “I reckon uh Matt Frevola is about to get a knockout probably in the first”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Nelson17-6-1
L McKinney KO/TKO · R1 Mar '26
W Frevola Decision · R3 Oct '25
L Garcia KO/TKO · R1 Sep '24
W Algeo KO/TKO · R1 Mar '24
W Padilla Decision · R3 Sep '23
Frevola11-5-1
L Nelson Decision · R3 Oct '25
L Ziam KO/TKO · R3 Sep '24
L Denis KO/TKO · R1 Nov '23
W Dober KO/TKO · R1 May '23
W Azaitar KO/TKO · R1 Nov '22