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UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes
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CU DR Ulberg vs ReyesMain Card · Light Heavyweight JJ RT Jenkins vs TaverasMain Card · Catchweight JC IE Crute vs ErslanMain Card · Light Heavyweight JM NM Matthews vs MagnyMain Card · Welterweight NS RB Stirling vs BellatoPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight LL AT Lookboonmee vs ThainaraPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight CR AP Rowston vs PetroskiPreliminary Card · Middleweight CT JM Thicknesse vs MusasaPreliminary Card · Bantamweight JM RB Mullarkey vs BedoyaPreliminary Card · Lightweight MM LC Montague vs CarolinaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight BP EE Peričić vs EllisonPreliminary Card · Heavyweight TN CC Nolan vs CampbellMain Card · Lightweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Crute v Erslan Light Heavyweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus153 picks · conf 99/99
Crute 118
35 Erslan
HMLLRT pick Crute
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Crute 14-4-2 VS 14-6 Erslan
6'2" height 6'2"
205 lb weight 206 lb
74" reach 72"
30 age 34
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.9 strikes landed / min 3.8
53% striking accuracy 53%
3.3 strikes absorbed / min 5.0
70% striking defence 71%
1.7 takedowns / 15 min 1.1
73% takedown accuracy 33%
76% takedown defence 80%
0.2 submissions / 15 min 0.1
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
CR Capitán Rafucho picks Jimmy Crute VALUE “I would take Jimmy Crute by submission”
FF Frozen Fists picks Jimmy Crute VALUE “give me Jimmy Crute”
WS We'll Do It Live! MMA Betting & Scoring picks Ivan Erslan VALUE “Ivan Erslan wins.”
BI BigCMMA picks Ivan Erslan “Give me Ivan Erslan by decision”
CR C.H.R.O.M.E. SPORTS TALK RAW picks Jimmy Crute “Uh Jimmy Crute won his last”
MS Mister C the Informal Spectator picks Jimmy Crute “Going to have to side with [__] Jimmy Crute on this one, boys.”
CO Coke picks Jimmy Crute “Anu Jimmy Crute yot celta.”
FF Fite Feed picks Ivan Erslan “Jake Matthews, Jack Jenkins, Ivan Erslan, and Carlos Ulberg.”
UM Us vs Them MMA picks Jimmy Crute “I do predict him to win this probably being the most likely outcome”
SC Street Champs picks Jimmy Crute VALUE “Jimmy Crute minus 225” $1.44
EM EXPERTO DE MMA picks Ivan Erslan “more impressed with Ivan Erslan's hands”
CU CultureCast picks Jimmy Crute “Jimmy Crute minus 180 versus Ivan Erslan + 150 light heavyweight.” $1.56
Recent form last five, most recent first
Crute14-4-2
W Erslan Submission · R1 Sep '25
W Prachnio Submission · R1 Jul '25
L Menifield Submission · R2 Jul '23
L Hill KO/TKO · R1 Dec '21
L Smith KO/TKO · R1 Apr '21
Erslan14-6
W Tokkos Decision · R3 May '26
L Crute Submission · R1 Sep '25
L Stirling Decision · R3 May '25
L Cuțelaba Decision · R3 Sep '24