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UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Neal v Prates Welterweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus145 picks · conf 99/99
Neal 49
96 Prates
HSDTBM pick Neal
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Neal 16-7 VS 23-7 Prates
5'11" height 6'1"
171 lb weight 170 lb
75" reach 78"
35 age 32
Southpaw stance Switch
5.0 strikes landed / min 4.4
51% striking accuracy 57%
5.4 strikes absorbed / min 4.6
57% striking defence 48%
0.6 takedowns / 15 min 0.4
50% takedown accuracy 100%
87% takedown defence 91%
0.1 submissions / 15 min 0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
CR Capitán Rafucho picks Carlos Prates VALUE “I will say this give me Carlos Prates practice part of the fighting nerds knockout round number two”
KM Keep it a Buck Media picks Geoff Neal VALUE
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Carlos Prates “So, I'm going with Carlos Prates here reluctantly.”
TF The Fight Forecast picks Carlos Prates VALUE “My official pick will be I think Protest by KO”
MD mdminds picks Geoff Neal “I Geoff Neal, 10 knockouts, two lot in that favor of Geoff Neal as well.”
MM MMAFightingonSBN picks Geoff Neal VALUE “I'm a believer in Carl Pches as a welterweight contender.”
TT The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Carlos Prates VALUE “I like patches here and I think he's going to win. I think if he wins it's probably with a knockout.”
RX RX picks Geoff Neal VALUE “give me Edson Barbosa by decision”
HP Hayjive Picks picks Geoff Neal VALUE “Number four, Geoff Neal, higher than 39 and a half.”
TH ThaGamingDojo picks Geoff Neal VALUE “I'mma go with Neil on this one.”
LJ Lucrative James picks Geoff Neal “I'm picking Protest by round three KO”
WP We Want Picks picks Carlos Prates “I am going to pick Carlos Prates”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Neal16-7
L Medić KO/TKO · R1 Feb '26
L Prates KO/TKO · R1 Aug '25
W Anjos KO/TKO · R1 Oct '24
L Garry Decision · R3 Feb '24
L Rakhmonov Submission · R3 Mar '23
Prates23-7
W Maddalena KO/TKO · R3 May '26
W Edwards KO/TKO · R2 Nov '25
W Neal KO/TKO · R1 Aug '25
L Garry Decision · R5 Apr '25
W Magny KO/TKO · R1 Nov '24