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Meerschaert vs OleksiejczukPreliminary Card · Middleweight
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Barboza vs KloseEarly Preliminary Card · Lightweight
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Elliott vs AsakuraMain Card · Flyweight
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Hooper vs HernandezPreliminary Card · Lightweight
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Murphy vs PicoMain Card · Featherweight
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Neal vs PratesMain Card · Welterweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Murphy v Pico
Featherweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Murphy 17-0-1
VS
13-5 Pico
5'9"
height
5'8"
146 lb
weight
145 lb
73"
reach
70"
34
age
29
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
4.8
strikes landed / min
—
54%
striking accuracy
—
2.7
strikes absorbed / min
—
60%
striking defence
—
1.8
takedowns / 15 min
—
54%
takedown accuracy
—
48%
takedown defence
—
0.6
submissions / 15 min
—
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
CR
Capitán Rafucho picks Lerone Murphy VALUE
“give me Lerone Murphy as unanimous decision at round number three”
Capitán Rafucho picks Lerone Murphy VALUE
“give me Lerone Murphy as unanimous decision at round number three”
RU
RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Lerone Murphy
“I like Lerone Murphy more as a Lerone Murphy pieces him up”
RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Lerone Murphy
“I like Lerone Murphy more as a Lerone Murphy pieces him up”
CP
Capper Comparison Picks picks Lerone Murphy
“He's going to win by decision. And that's my final pick.”
Capper Comparison Picks picks Lerone Murphy
“He's going to win by decision. And that's my final pick.”
TF
The Fight Forecast picks Aaron Pico VALUE
“Go with the Rowan Murphy by money line”
The Fight Forecast picks Aaron Pico VALUE
“Go with the Rowan Murphy by money line”
MD
mdminds picks Lerone Murphy
“I'm just going to take Lerone Murphy against stiff competition, I mean Lerone Murphy I'm just gonna go uh Lerone Murphy moneyline three or by decision plus 170.”
mdminds picks Lerone Murphy
“I'm just going to take Lerone Murphy against stiff competition, I mean Lerone Murphy I'm just gonna go uh Lerone Murphy moneyline three or by decision plus 170.”
TT
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Aaron Pico VALUE
“Aaron Pico for me, one of the more high-level wrestlers that have come into the UFC in a little bit just in terms of his skill set.”
$1.62
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Aaron Pico VALUE
“Aaron Pico for me, one of the more high-level wrestlers that have come into the UFC in a little bit just in terms of his skill set.”
$1.62
TT
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Lerone Murphy VALUE
“You're going with Lerone Murphy pre-fight, though the line has moved in a little bit.”
$2.35
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Lerone Murphy VALUE
“You're going with Lerone Murphy pre-fight, though the line has moved in a little bit.”
$2.35
WT
WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Lerone Murphy VALUE
“in the EVENT_DETAILS he played much more of a typical bet for him. Lerone Murphy plus 165”
$2.65
WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Lerone Murphy VALUE
“in the EVENT_DETAILS he played much more of a typical bet for him. Lerone Murphy plus 165”
$2.65
RX
RX picks Lerone Murphy VALUE
“give me Rome Murphy by decision”
RX picks Lerone Murphy VALUE
“give me Rome Murphy by decision”
HP
Hayjive Picks picks Lerone Murphy VALUE
“Lastly, Lerone Murphy lower than 64 and a half significant strikes.”
Hayjive Picks picks Lerone Murphy VALUE
“Lastly, Lerone Murphy lower than 64 and a half significant strikes.”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Murphy17-0-1
L
Evloev
Mar '26
W
Pico
Aug '25
W
Emmett
Apr '25
W
Ige
Oct '24
W
Barboza
May '24
Pico13-5
W
Pitbull
Apr '26
L
Murphy
Aug '25