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UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Elliott v Asakura Flyweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus148 picks · conf 99/99
Elliott 54
94 Asakura
TMRMBM pick Elliott
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Elliott 22-13-1 VS 21-6 Asakura
5'7" height 5'8"
126 lb weight 126 lb
66" reach 69"
39 age 32
Southpaw stance Orthodox
3.4 strikes landed / min 0.0
44% striking accuracy 0%
2.7 strikes absorbed / min 0.0
56% striking defence 0%
3.7 takedowns / 15 min 0.0
47% takedown accuracy 0%
59% takedown defence 0%
1.0 submissions / 15 min 0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
CR Capitán Rafucho picks Tim Elliott VALUE “I would love to see Tim Elliott with the submission because I would love to see that”
CR Capitán Rafucho picks Kai Asakura VALUE “I'm going to have to go with Inside the Distance by knockout”
KM Keep it a Buck Media picks Tim Elliott VALUE
CP Capper Comparison Picks picks Kai Asakura “I got Kai Asakura here. This is one of my more confident picks.”
TF The Fight Forecast picks Tim Elliott VALUE “I think Tim Elliott here first”
OP Overdogs Podcast with Mike Perry picks Tim Elliott “There's five. Tim Elliott, maybe. Yeah, Tim Elliott versus Kai Asakura. Pretty good fight.”
RX RX picks Tim Elliott “give me Tim Elliot by decision”
TH ThaGamingDojo picks Tim Elliott VALUE “I got Kai as well. I think they wanted to do something by throwing Kai straight into a title fight... but I think it's a win for Kai.”
LJ Lucrative James picks Tim Elliott “Tim Elliot versus Kai Asakora... I think if it stays on the feet for long periods of time, Kai can hurt him”
WP We Want Picks picks Tim Elliott “I'm going to pick Tim Elliott”
LS La Sueur+ picks Tim Elliott VALUE “I'm coming for you”
GM GC MMA picks Kai Asakura VALUE “Give me Kai. That guy is an auto fade. ... I do think that he probably will be able to knock Tim Elliott out here.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Elliott22-13-1
L Erceg Decision · R3 May '26
W Asakura Submission · R2 Aug '25
W Mudaerji Submission · R1 Dec '23
L Mokaev Submission · R3 Oct '23
W Altamirano Decision · R3 Jun '23
Asakura21-6
W Smotherman KO/TKO · R1 May '26
L Elliott Submission · R2 Aug '25
L Pantoja Submission · R2 Dec '24