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UFC 295: Procházka vs. Pereira
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Aspinall v Pavlovich Heavyweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus60 picks · conf 73/99
Aspinall 30
30 Pavlovich
FBTWMH pick Aspinall
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Aspinall 15-3 VS 20-3 Pavlovich
6'5" height 6'3"
251 lb weight 255 lb
78" reach 84"
33 age 34
Orthodox stance Southpaw
8.1 strikes landed / min 3.1
67% striking accuracy 44%
2.9 strikes absorbed / min 3.3
65% striking defence 66%
3.3 takedowns / 15 min 1.8
100% takedown accuracy 25%
100% takedown defence 64%
1.6 submissions / 15 min 1.1
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
RU RotoWire MMA / UFC picks Sergei Pavlovich “I am taking Sergei Pavlovich ... I love Sergei Pavlovich”
UP UFC FIGHT PASS picks Tom Aspinall “pavlovic yeah yeah I just I just think he's um you know he's got the package I mean he's overly aggressive and um you know he's a smart fighter and he's tougher than hell”
TP The City Life Project picks Tom Aspinall VALUE “I still think EG takes this one” $1.95
UC UFC - CELEBRITIES AND CLASSICS picks Sergei Pavlovich “my bet three is Sergei Pavlovich to win”
TS The Fight Week Show picks Tom Aspinall “yeah obviously we're going for a homeboy but we're going for future British heavweight champion Tom aseno”
TS The Fight Week Show picks Sergei Pavlovich “oh only now pick Yuri you know what I'm going to yeah I'm going to go with Yuri then”
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Tom Aspinall VALUE “I think Tom aspo is going to win”
LM Leftlane MMA picks Sergei Pavlovich VALUE “I like the plus money on Sergey pavlovic... Sero pavlovich at plus 100” $2.00
TB Totally Blitzed picks Sergei Pavlovich “I'm taking pavic”
MM Mmajessic picks Sergei Pavlovich “I'm kind of leaning towards uh Sergei Pavlovich”
LO Luke O'Libre picks Tom Aspinall “I think Tom Aspinall is actually going to find chin I think he's going to get the job done early”
AT ATM Talks picks Tom Aspinall “I'm going to be going with Tom Aspinall”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Aspinall15-3
W Blaydes KO/TKO · R1 Jul '24
W Pavlovich KO/TKO · R1 Nov '23
W Tybura KO/TKO · R1 Jul '23
L Blaydes KO/TKO · R1 Jul '22
W Volkov Submission · R1 Mar '22
Pavlovich20-3
W Teixeira KO/TKO · R1 May '26
W Cortes-Acosta Decision · R3 Aug '25
W Rozenstruik Decision · R3 Feb '25
L Volkov Decision · R3 Jun '24
L Aspinall KO/TKO · R1 Nov '23