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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Pimblett v Ferguson
Lightweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Pimblett 23-3
VS
26-11 Ferguson
5'10"
height
5'11"
155 lb
weight
170 lb
73"
reach
76"
31
age
42
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
4.9
strikes landed / min
4.9
53%
striking accuracy
45%
3.8
strikes absorbed / min
4.4
40%
striking defence
55%
0.9
takedowns / 15 min
0.4
25%
takedown accuracy
35%
52%
takedown defence
66%
2.1
submissions / 15 min
0.9
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
OS
Once Upon A Slugfest picks Paddy Pimblett
“who has the highest Paddy Pimblett down average”
Once Upon A Slugfest picks Paddy Pimblett
“who has the highest Paddy Pimblett down average”
TD
The Rambling Dad picks Paddy Pimblett VALUE
“I think Paddy Pimblett's overall is probably going to take this fight whether it goes to the decision or whether he gets a finish”
The Rambling Dad picks Paddy Pimblett VALUE
“I think Paddy Pimblett's overall is probably going to take this fight whether it goes to the decision or whether he gets a finish”
LM
Leftlane MMA picks Tony Ferguson VALUE
“Tony Ferguson plus 124 I'm going to Chuck up bit on that”
$2.24
Leftlane MMA picks Tony Ferguson VALUE
“Tony Ferguson plus 124 I'm going to Chuck up bit on that”
$2.24
LM
Leftlane MMA picks Paddy Pimblett
“I do think Paddy Pimblett is going to get it done... Patty the money line minus 320”
$1.31
Leftlane MMA picks Paddy Pimblett
“I do think Paddy Pimblett is going to get it done... Patty the money line minus 320”
$1.31
BR
Broom picks Tony Ferguson
“I knock Paddy Pimblett stiff”
Broom picks Tony Ferguson
“I knock Paddy Pimblett stiff”
BR
Broom picks Paddy Pimblett
“Paddy Pimblett's an Paddy Pimblett second round submission”
Broom picks Paddy Pimblett
“Paddy Pimblett's an Paddy Pimblett second round submission”
TB
Totally Blitzed picks Paddy Pimblett
“I think Paddy Pimblett will be the one that gets to his hand raised here”
$1.33
Totally Blitzed picks Paddy Pimblett
“I think Paddy Pimblett will be the one that gets to his hand raised here”
$1.33
CZ
Comedian Black Zeus picks Paddy Pimblett
“you're going with Paddy Pimblettaddy Paddy Pimblettimblett Paddy Pimblettimblett”
Comedian Black Zeus picks Paddy Pimblett
“you're going with Paddy Pimblettaddy Paddy Pimblettimblett Paddy Pimblettimblett”
SM
Scorecard MMA picks Paddy Pimblett
“I'm just ever so slightly leaning towards the cardio the wrestling the overall Relentless pressure of Colby Covington”
Scorecard MMA picks Paddy Pimblett
“I'm just ever so slightly leaning towards the cardio the wrestling the overall Relentless pressure of Colby Covington”
TL
The life of laASMR picks Paddy Pimblett
“I think party pet can get it done”
The life of laASMR picks Paddy Pimblett
“I think party pet can get it done”
ZP
Zlatan's Fight Picks picks Paddy Pimblett
“so Paddy Pimblett going to be the pick very low confidence because I so think there's a path to victory for Tony Ferguson even though I think he's worn out”
Zlatan's Fight Picks picks Paddy Pimblett
“so Paddy Pimblett going to be the pick very low confidence because I so think there's a path to victory for Tony Ferguson even though I think he's worn out”
TF
TNT Sports Football picks Paddy Pimblett VALUE
“if Patty gets a win over Tony Ferguson that propels him into the conversation with those bigger names”
TNT Sports Football picks Paddy Pimblett VALUE
“if Patty gets a win over Tony Ferguson that propels him into the conversation with those bigger names”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Pimblett23-3
L
Gaethje
Jan '26
W
Chandler
Apr '25
W
Green
Jul '24
W
Ferguson
Dec '23
W
Gordon
Dec '22
Ferguson26-11
L
Chiesa
Aug '24
L
Pimblett
Dec '23
L
Green
Jul '23
L
Diaz
Sep '22
L
Chandler
May '22