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LE
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Edwards vs CovingtonMain Card · Welterweight
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Pantoja vs RoyvalMain Card · Flyweight
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Rakhmonov vs ThompsonMain Card · Welterweight
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Pimblett vs FergusonMain Card · Lightweight
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Emmett vs MitchellMain Card · Featherweight
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Menifield vs JacobyPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
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Aldana vs RosaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
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Garbrandt vs KelleherPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
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Lipski vs O'NeillPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
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Ulanbekov vs DurdenEarly Preliminary Card · Flyweight
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Fili vs AlmeidaEarly Preliminary Card · Featherweight
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MB
Gaziev vs BudayEarly Preliminary Card · Heavyweight
CC
Edwards vs CovingtonMain Card · Welterweight
AP
BR
Pantoja vs RoyvalMain Card · Flyweight
SR
ST
Rakhmonov vs ThompsonMain Card · Welterweight
PP
TF
Pimblett vs FergusonMain Card · Lightweight
JE
BM
Emmett vs MitchellMain Card · Featherweight
AM
DJ
Menifield vs JacobyPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
IA
KR
Aldana vs RosaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
CG
BK
Garbrandt vs KelleherPreliminary Card · Bantamweight
AL
CO
Lipski vs O'NeillPreliminary Card · Women'S Flyweight
TU
CD
Ulanbekov vs DurdenEarly Preliminary Card · Flyweight
AF
LA
Fili vs AlmeidaEarly Preliminary Card · Featherweight
SG
MB
Gaziev vs BudayEarly Preliminary Card · Heavyweight
BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Edwards v Covington
Welterweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Edwards 22-5
VS
17-4 Covington
6'2"
height
5'11"
171 lb
weight
171 lb
74"
reach
72"
34
age
38
Southpaw
stance
Orthodox
3.9
strikes landed / min
3.9
48%
striking accuracy
38%
2.9
strikes absorbed / min
3.0
60%
striking defence
55%
0.7
takedowns / 15 min
3.8
39%
takedown accuracy
44%
73%
takedown defence
67%
0.3
submissions / 15 min
0.2
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
TD
The Rambling Dad picks Colby Covington VALUE
“I think Colby Covington will have success taking him down to the ground but I think's going to be able to get back up and out strike him on the feet even though Colby Covington's apparently a Colby Covington a cardio machine but couldn't blow out fre birthday candles on a cake your one Jordan here you go strong opinions on that one then um me I'm not at all quite even now feel a bit stuck on this one Colby Covington seems like the anti Leon fire you know I mean it's high pressure he got better striking than newsman if not less dangerous and his chain wrestling's a bit more Relentless so it feels like this is set up for Colby Covington with that being said Leon I don't know he's getting more convinced in each fight as Champion so I think I'm going to stick with Leon for this one”
The Rambling Dad picks Colby Covington VALUE
“I think Colby Covington will have success taking him down to the ground but I think's going to be able to get back up and out strike him on the feet even though Colby Covington's apparently a Colby Covington a cardio machine but couldn't blow out fre birthday candles on a cake your one Jordan here you go strong opinions on that one then um me I'm not at all quite even now feel a bit stuck on this one Colby Covington seems like the anti Leon fire you know I mean it's high pressure he got better striking than newsman if not less dangerous and his chain wrestling's a bit more Relentless so it feels like this is set up for Colby Covington with that being said Leon I don't know he's getting more convinced in each fight as Champion so I think I'm going to stick with Leon for this one”
SD
Santino DeFranco picks Leon Edwards VALUE
“I like Leon Edwards a lot here Colby Covington Covington been out of the cage for so long he's old he hasn't fought in a long time Leon Edwards's just got the it Factor right now I I think this is just a clear Leon Edwards fight here”
Santino DeFranco picks Leon Edwards VALUE
“I like Leon Edwards a lot here Colby Covington Covington been out of the cage for so long he's old he hasn't fought in a long time Leon Edwards's just got the it Factor right now I I think this is just a clear Leon Edwards fight here”
OS
Once Upon A Slugfest picks Leon Edwards
“my subscribers and I went with um Leon Edwards Edwards”
Once Upon A Slugfest picks Leon Edwards
“my subscribers and I went with um Leon Edwards Edwards”
LM
Leftlane MMA picks Leon Edwards VALUE
“I think Leon Leon Edwards gets this one done... I'm taking Leon Leon Edwards minus 167”
$1.60
Leftlane MMA picks Leon Edwards VALUE
“I think Leon Leon Edwards gets this one done... I'm taking Leon Leon Edwards minus 167”
$1.60
TB
Totally Blitzed picks Leon Edwards
“I'm picking Leon Leon Edwards officially”
Totally Blitzed picks Leon Edwards
“I'm picking Leon Leon Edwards officially”
CZ
Comedian Black Zeus picks Leon Edwards
“I'm picking Leon Edwards just as all right”
Comedian Black Zeus picks Leon Edwards
“I'm picking Leon Edwards just as all right”
EB
ESPN BET picks Colby Covington
“I just don't think Colby Covington striking is going to be enough of a threat”
ESPN BET picks Colby Covington
“I just don't think Colby Covington striking is going to be enough of a threat”
EB
ESPN BET picks Leon Edwards VALUE
“I'm going to go with Leon Edwards Leon Edwards Edwards here I just don't think Colby Covington striking is going to be enough of a threat”
ESPN BET picks Leon Edwards VALUE
“I'm going to go with Leon Edwards Leon Edwards Edwards here I just don't think Colby Covington striking is going to be enough of a threat”
ZP
Zlatan's Fight Picks picks Leon Edwards
“I'm picking Leon Leon Edwards”
Zlatan's Fight Picks picks Leon Edwards
“I'm picking Leon Leon Edwards”
TF
TNT Sports Football picks Leon Edwards VALUE
“if Leon starts piecing them up early on it's suddenly the difference in the skill set and the technique is at the level that it could well be that it could be an absolute Master Class shut out for Leon Edwards”
TNT Sports Football picks Leon Edwards VALUE
“if Leon starts piecing them up early on it's suddenly the difference in the skill set and the technique is at the level that it could well be that it could be an absolute Master Class shut out for Leon Edwards”
WP
We Want Picks picks Leon Edwards
“I think Leon Edwards wins this fight”
We Want Picks picks Leon Edwards
“I think Leon Edwards wins this fight”
OB
OddsShopper Sports Betting picks Colby Covington
“I really like Colby Covington moneyline plus 140 ... give me Colby Covington third play is Colby Covington money line”
$2.40
OddsShopper Sports Betting picks Colby Covington
“I really like Colby Covington moneyline plus 140 ... give me Colby Covington third play is Colby Covington money line”
$2.40
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Edwards22-5
L
Prates
Nov '25
L
Brady
Mar '25
L
Muhammad
Jul '24
W
Covington
Dec '23
W
Usman
Mar '23
Covington17-4
L
Buckley
Dec '24
L
Edwards
Dec '23
W
Masvidal
Mar '22
L
Usman
Nov '21
W
Woodley
Sep '20