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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Santos Aguilar v Mendonça Flyweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus33 picks · conf 56/99
Santos Aguilar 20
13 Mendonça
1TMMTU pick Santos Aguilar
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Santos Aguilar 12-4 VS 10-3 Mendonça
5'4" height —
125 lb weight —
63" reach —
30 age 27
Orthodox stance Orthodox
5.3 strikes landed / min 1.7
50% striking accuracy 40%
2.6 strikes absorbed / min 4.1
48% striking defence 30%
3.0 takedowns / 15 min 2.5
29% takedown accuracy 27%
53% takedown defence 55%
1.0 submissions / 15 min 0.4
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
LS Lil Stray picks Mateus Mendonça “I'm going with Mateus Mendonça completely changed off that his reach Advantage is huge”
WP We Want Picks picks Jesús Santos Aguilar “I think matal mandanka wins this fight”
TP The City Life Project picks Mateus Mendonça VALUE “I'm going with mendosa here”
LM Leftlane MMA picks Mateus Mendonça “I'm going to go with Mateus Mendonça”
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Jesús Santos Aguilar “Aguila wins this one wherever he wants to”
TH TheWeasle picks Jesús Santos Aguilar “I'm going to go with Jesús Santos Aguilar”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Jesús Santos Aguilar VALUE “I'm picking Jesús Santos Aguilar by decision” $2.05
DN DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Jesús Santos Aguilar VALUE “Jesús Santos Aguilar is very live dog uh 7,800 he has grappling upside he has wrestling upside he's taken on Mateus Mendonça who I don't trust TR the cardio I don't trust the IQ especially you know Mateus Mendonça is is making a ton of mistakes in the Madden and you can't do that at this level against Jesús Santos Aguilar especially who is a very good Grappler in his own right so agular is going to have the wrestling the cardio and as long as he can survive like the first round or so I think he could take over and get a finish late”
MN MMA Lock of the Night picks Jesús Santos Aguilar “I'm leaning the agular side here as I believe his power punching style could keep mandona on his back foot”
VI VinceMMA picks Mateus Mendonça “I'm picking Mateus Mendonça going Mateus Mendonça to to KO him in the first or second round”
EP Ebays Fight Predictions picks Mateus Mendonça VALUE “I think Mateus Mendonça is the better Fighter um I think matus he I'm putting I put a unit on him uh to get the victory on his money line”
TO The Golden Octagon picks Jesús Santos Aguilar “I'm just gonna go Jesús Santos Aguilar agular”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Santos Aguilar12-4
L Mudaerji Decision · R3 Mar '26
W Gurule Decision · R3 Sep '25
L Estevam Decision · R3 Feb '25
W Nicoll Submission · R1 Aug '24
W Mendonça Decision · R3 Feb '24
Mendonça10-3
L Aguilar Decision · R3 Feb '24
L Maness KO/TKO · R1 Oct '23
L Basharat Decision · R3 Jan '23