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Magomedov vs AlvesPreliminary Card · Middleweight
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Williams vs HarrisMain Card · Welterweight
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Gorimbo vs BrahimajMain Card · Welterweight
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Yañez vs SalvadorMain Card · Bantamweight
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Hill vs PinheiroMain Card · Women'S Strawweight
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Nolan vs MartinezPreliminary Card · Lightweight
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Sy vs TokkosPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
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Gatto vs VidalPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight
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Magomedov vs AlvesPreliminary Card · Middleweight
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Carnelossi vs RodríguezPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Magomedov v Alves
Middleweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Magomedov 28-7-1
VS
15-8 Alves
6'2"
height
5'11"
185 lb
weight
186 lb
78"
reach
72"
35
age
35
Orthodox
stance
Orthodox
4.7
strikes landed / min
3.0
38%
striking accuracy
48%
3.8
strikes absorbed / min
4.0
74%
striking defence
50%
1.9
takedowns / 15 min
1.2
60%
takedown accuracy
50%
65%
takedown defence
62%
0.2
submissions / 15 min
0.8
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
SA
Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Warlley Alves VALUE
“I'm going to lean towards the Warlley Alves side”
Stokastic DFS - Daily Fantasy Sports Advice picks Warlley Alves VALUE
“I'm going to lean towards the Warlley Alves side”
TT
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Warlley Alves VALUE
“I like to Maris Vidal she was plus 300 earlier in the week which I gave out in the luck ratings still at 270”
$3.70
The Action Network: Sports Betting Picks & Tips picks Warlley Alves VALUE
“I like to Maris Vidal she was plus 300 earlier in the week which I gave out in the luck ratings still at 270”
$3.70
WT
WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Abusupiyan Magomedov VALUE
“I lean magam medov but have your live lines open have your live lines open if magam medov doesn't get the early finishing you just start to sniff that he's getting tired”
WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips picks Abusupiyan Magomedov VALUE
“I lean magam medov but have your live lines open have your live lines open if magam medov doesn't get the early finishing you just start to sniff that he's getting tired”
WP
We Want Picks picks Abusupiyan Magomedov
“I like Abusupiyan Magomedov here I do think he wins”
We Want Picks picks Abusupiyan Magomedov
“I like Abusupiyan Magomedov here I do think he wins”
TP
The City Life Project picks Abusupiyan Magomedov
“we're going Abusupiyan Magomedov on this one minus 250 he's the favorite and I just think warley Alves he's done at the UFC level we'll probably see him fight in the pfl I don't think Alves will be able to put a high Pace on Abus he's just a big hard Striker now Abus is bigger Longer more dangerous looking at the B fight and even back at the Strickland fight in hindsight not the worst losses right not the worst losses I don't think he will gas as hard as he did against Strickland hopefully Paces himself a little bit more in the first round and again if he doesn't gas himself in the first first he'll probably get that KO TKO likely in the second round but regardless Abus Maga that's my pick”
$1.40
The City Life Project picks Abusupiyan Magomedov
“we're going Abusupiyan Magomedov on this one minus 250 he's the favorite and I just think warley Alves he's done at the UFC level we'll probably see him fight in the pfl I don't think Alves will be able to put a high Pace on Abus he's just a big hard Striker now Abus is bigger Longer more dangerous looking at the B fight and even back at the Strickland fight in hindsight not the worst losses right not the worst losses I don't think he will gas as hard as he did against Strickland hopefully Paces himself a little bit more in the first round and again if he doesn't gas himself in the first first he'll probably get that KO TKO likely in the second round but regardless Abus Maga that's my pick”
$1.40
KC
Keg & Company | A Betting Collective picks Abusupiyan Magomedov VALUE
“so Abusupiyan Magomedovupiyan Magomedov we're both on Abusupiyan Magomedovupiyan Magomedov to win um but yeah we're looking at the unders in that one”
Keg & Company | A Betting Collective picks Abusupiyan Magomedov VALUE
“so Abusupiyan Magomedovupiyan Magomedov we're both on Abusupiyan Magomedovupiyan Magomedov to win um but yeah we're looking at the unders in that one”
BP
Bloody Water Podcast picks Abusupiyan Magomedov VALUE
“if you look at the odds Abusupiyan Magomedovs opened up as Aus 185 he's swollen to Aus 275 favorite right here”
$1.36
Bloody Water Podcast picks Abusupiyan Magomedov VALUE
“if you look at the odds Abusupiyan Magomedovs opened up as Aus 185 he's swollen to Aus 275 favorite right here”
$1.36
LF
Liam Picks Fights picks Abusupiyan Magomedov VALUE
“I think madagam medov wins um I don't think Wally Warlley Alves uh has any business being at 185”
Liam Picks Fights picks Abusupiyan Magomedov VALUE
“I think madagam medov wins um I don't think Wally Warlley Alves uh has any business being at 185”
PR
Pub Sports Radio picks Abusupiyan Magomedov VALUE
“I got to talk to Abusupiyan Magomedov as well um talked about you know his finishing submissions”
Pub Sports Radio picks Abusupiyan Magomedov VALUE
“I got to talk to Abusupiyan Magomedov as well um talked about you know his finishing submissions”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Abusupiyan Magomedov VALUE
“9,000 Abusupiyan Magomedov in my opinion he's first round or bust and for that reason you got to have some because if he does to go out there and get a first round knockout at 9k you're looking pretty good”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Abusupiyan Magomedov VALUE
“9,000 Abusupiyan Magomedov in my opinion he's first round or bust and for that reason you got to have some because if he does to go out there and get a first round knockout at 9k you're looking pretty good”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Warlley Alves
“I think Warlley Alves down low at 7,200 makes some sense just because if he can survive the first five minutes here I think his chances of winning skyrockets”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Warlley Alves
“I think Warlley Alves down low at 7,200 makes some sense just because if he can survive the first five minutes here I think his chances of winning skyrockets”
EB
ESPN BET picks Abusupiyan Magomedov VALUE
“as long as he doesn't gas out I think this is a good bounceback fight for him”
ESPN BET picks Abusupiyan Magomedov VALUE
“as long as he doesn't gas out I think this is a good bounceback fight for him”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Magomedov28-7-1
W
Oleksiejczuk
Jun '26
L
Pyfer
Oct '25
W
Pereira
Apr '25
W
Ferreira
Oct '24
W
Alves
May '24
Alves15-8
L
Magomedov
May '24
L
Aliskerov
Oct '23
L
Dalby
Jan '23
L
Wells
Jun '21
W
Lazzez
Jan '21