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UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili
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MD SO Dvalishvili vs O'MalleyMain Card · Bantamweight VS AG Shevchenko vs GrassoMain Card · Women'S Flyweight DL BO Lopes vs OrtegaMain Card · Featherweight ER DZ Ribovics vs ZellhuberMain Card · Lightweight RR OO Rodríguez vs OsbourneMain Card · Flyweight ND IA Dumont vs AldanaPreliminary Card · Women'S Bantamweight IB MT Bahamondes vs TorresPreliminary Card · Lightweight KS YJ Souza vs JaureguiPreliminary Card · Women'S Strawweight JV ÉC Van vs CháirezPreliminary Card · Flyweight RJ AQ Rosas Jr. vs QilengEarly Preliminary Card · Bantamweight
BEST PRICE Prophecy read Souza v Jauregui Women'S Strawweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus20 picks · conf 43/99
Souza 2
18 Jauregui
bW pick Souza
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Souza 16-6 VS 11-2 Jauregui
5'3" height 5'3"
115 lb weight 115 lb
63" reach 64"
31 age 27
Orthodox stance Orthodox
5.1 strikes landed / min 6.6
66% striking accuracy 39%
3.5 strikes absorbed / min 5.2
56% striking defence 54%
0.8 takedowns / 15 min 0.0
50% takedown accuracy 0%
62% takedown defence 100%
0.8 submissions / 15 min 0.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
TM The MMA-Holes picks Yazmin Jauregui “I'm just gonna say Yazmin Jauregui decision”
WP We Want Picks picks Yazmin Jauregui “I do think she wins”
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Yazmin Jauregui “I'm gonna anticipate that Yazmin Jauregui is able to land volume strikes from distance I think that she's probably going to take it on the scorecards” $1.20
PR Premium-Picks picks Yazmin Jauregui “the pick is definitely jasine”
UG UFC GamblingAddicts picks Yazmin Jauregui “the pick is Yasmin Hari”
BA babysharpMMA🦈 picks Ketlen Souza VALUE “I'm going with klin here”
OS Once Upon A Slugfest picks Yazmin Jauregui “my subscribers and I went with Yazmin Jauregui”
MM MMAPlaya picks Yazmin Jauregui “my second best bet Yazmin Jauregui”
WP We Want Picks picks Ketlen Souza VALUE “I think she [__] finds a shot so it's not a lock of the week or anything like that but uh you know I just think one plus one is going to equal two in this situation you're straight up picking Catlin oh yeah”
HB Half The Battle picks Yazmin Jauregui VALUE “I think she's gonna gas out Katlin and tea off on her to either win a decision or a finish” $1.22
ME MMA EXPERTS picks Yazmin Jauregui VALUE “I'm gonna be going with hadig to win... I'll go her by decision”
KU Kunath picks Yazmin Jauregui “give me how regi to win by knockout”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Souza16-6
W Carnelossi KO/TKO · R1 Jun '26
W Brasil Decision · R3 Feb '26
L Rodríguez Decision · R3 Aug '25
L Hill Decision · R3 Feb '25
W Jauregui Submission · R1 Sep '24
Jauregui11-2
L Souza Submission · R1 Sep '24
W Hughes Decision · R3 Feb '24
L Gomes KO/TKO · R1 Jul '23
W Nunes KO/TKO · R2 Dec '22
W Lucindo Decision · R3 Aug '22