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Magomedov vs PetrosyanMain Card · Middleweight
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Aslan vs CerqueiraPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
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Neal vs AnjosPreliminary Card · Welterweight
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Rębecki vs OrolbaiPreliminary Card · Catchweight
AM
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Magomedov vs FerreiraPreliminary Card · Middleweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Rębecki v Orolbai
Catchweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight.
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Rębecki 20-4
VS
15-2-1 Orolbai
5'7"
height
5'10"
155 lb
weight
170 lb
66"
reach
74"
33
age
28
Southpaw
stance
Orthodox
4.7
strikes landed / min
3.4
48%
striking accuracy
48%
4.1
strikes absorbed / min
3.4
54%
striking defence
49%
3.8
takedowns / 15 min
5.4
75%
takedown accuracy
43%
45%
takedown defence
40%
0.8
submissions / 15 min
0.4
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
CP
Capper Comparison Picks picks Myktybek Orolbai
“I got Myktybek Orolbai this is one”
Capper Comparison Picks picks Myktybek Orolbai
“I got Myktybek Orolbai this is one”
ST
StunnaSwitch picks Myktybek Orolbai
“my pick is going to be Myktybek Orolbai by decision and money line and the fight to go the distance”
StunnaSwitch picks Myktybek Orolbai
“my pick is going to be Myktybek Orolbai by decision and money line and the fight to go the distance”
MN
MMA Lock of the Night picks Myktybek Orolbai VALUE
“gim me Myktybek Orolbai as the first step here either to get a late finish or to win by some decision”
$1.82
MMA Lock of the Night picks Myktybek Orolbai VALUE
“gim me Myktybek Orolbai as the first step here either to get a late finish or to win by some decision”
$1.82
GI
GiulianoArgenti picks Myktybek Orolbai VALUE
“Myktybek Orolbai to beat Mateusz Rębecki”
GiulianoArgenti picks Myktybek Orolbai VALUE
“Myktybek Orolbai to beat Mateusz Rębecki”
EB
ESPN BET picks Mateusz Rębecki
“we know Mateusz Rębecki strong tends to gas the fight goes on”
ESPN BET picks Mateusz Rębecki
“we know Mateusz Rębecki strong tends to gas the fight goes on”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Mateusz Rębecki
“we see Mateusz Rębecki just go out there look really good early but slow down uh tremendously as the fight goes on”
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Mateusz Rębecki
“we see Mateusz Rębecki just go out there look really good early but slow down uh tremendously as the fight goes on”
DN
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Myktybek Orolbai VALUE
“I'm personally liking Myktybek Orolbai here at 99,100”
$992.00
DFS BY THE NUMBERS picks Myktybek Orolbai VALUE
“I'm personally liking Myktybek Orolbai here at 99,100”
$992.00
LM
Livid Larry MMA picks Mateusz Rębecki
“I'll be going with Jeff Neal in this fight”
Livid Larry MMA picks Mateusz Rębecki
“I'll be going with Jeff Neal in this fight”
MN
Mayo Media Network picks Mateusz Rębecki VALUE
“I'm going to just give you a cheap fighter who I think has a little bit better chance to excel than his current odds and that's matus Mateusz Rębecki at 7.1k”
Mayo Media Network picks Mateusz Rębecki VALUE
“I'm going to just give you a cheap fighter who I think has a little bit better chance to excel than his current odds and that's matus Mateusz Rębecki at 7.1k”
ME
MMA EXPERTS picks Mateusz Rębecki VALUE
“I'm going to go with the side of Mateusz Rębecki to take it home”
$1.30
MMA EXPERTS picks Mateusz Rębecki VALUE
“I'm going to go with the side of Mateusz Rębecki to take it home”
$1.30
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Rębecki20-4
L
Dawson
May '26
L
Klein
Oct '25
L
Duncan
Aug '25
W
Orolbai
Oct '24
L
Ferreira
May '24
Orolbai15-2-1
W
Curtis
Mar '26
W
Hermansson
Nov '25
W
Musayev
Jun '25
L
Rębecki
Oct '24
W
Brener
May '24