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UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Tokkos v Erslan Light Heavyweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
The edge on this fight is Pro-onlyPro unlocks our fair line, the EV% and which side we back — plus AI deep research on every fight. Go Pro →
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Consensus103 picks · conf 86/99
Tokkos 61
42 Erslan
MMASTT pick Tokkos
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Tokkos 11-5 VS 14-6 Erslan
6'4" height 6'2"
206 lb weight 206 lb
76" reach 72"
36 age 34
Orthodox stance Orthodox
3.3 strikes landed / min 3.8
43% striking accuracy 53%
4.6 strikes absorbed / min 5.0
45% striking defence 71%
2.0 takedowns / 15 min 1.1
100% takedown accuracy 33%
33% takedown defence 80%
0.0 submissions / 15 min 0.1
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only Go Pro →
Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
RR Rising the Ranks picks Tuco Tokkos VALUE “I'm going to put Tuco Tokkos on my parlays”
BM Bum MMA picks Tuco Tokkos VALUE “I'm gonna say the same thing. Tuco Tokkos is going to come out here.” $2.50
DS DFS Army - Daily Fantasy Sports picks Tuco Tokkos VALUE “I'll take Tuco Tokkos.” $2.45
UB UFC Brasil picks Ivan Erslan “Ivan Erslan versus”
JA JakeGerberMMA picks Ivan Erslan “I'm going Ivan Erslan by first round KO”
RS Round 3: Prediction Show picks Ivan Erslan “Tuco Tokkos versus Yvon Ivan Erslan. I'm going to go with Ivan Erslan.”
TC The Finz Chats picks Tuco Tokkos VALUE “I'm going with Tuco Tokkos to win this by submission. ... give me Tuco Tokkos by sub plus 490” $5.90
PH Philyflishow999 picks Tuco Tokkos “I have a feeling Tuco Tokkos is going to use grappling to his advantage to win that fight. And I think Tuco Tokkos gets that win.”
AU Austin picks Tuco Tokkos “I'm going with Tuco Tokkos anyway no matter what people I'm going with Tuco Tokkos in this fight.”
TS The Sports Scientist picks Tuco Tokkos “I'll take too close to win by decision”
HZ Hank's War Zone picks Ivan Erslan “give me Ivan Erslan by round two knockout.”
BP Beats Rhymes & Parlays picks Tuco Tokkos “on to Tuco Tokkos at plus 140 versus Ivan Erslan >> ... we got Tuco Tokkos” $2.40
Recent form last five, most recent first
Tokkos11-5
L Erslan Decision · R3 May '26
W Tafa Submission · R2 Jul '25
L Stirling Decision · R3 Dec '24
L Sy Submission · R1 May '24
Erslan14-6
W Tokkos Decision · R3 May '26
L Crute Submission · R1 Sep '25
L Stirling Decision · R3 May '25
L Cuțelaba Decision · R3 Sep '24