MMA Prophecy
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UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Allen v Costa Featherweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus150 picks · conf 99/99
Allen 101
49 Costa
MBWRAW pick Allen
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Allen 20-4 VS 26-7 Costa
5'8" height 5'10"
145 lb weight 145 lb
70" reach 71"
32 age 29
Southpaw stance Southpaw
3.5 strikes landed / min 3.5
41% striking accuracy 46%
2.9 strikes absorbed / min 2.3
61% striking defence 58%
0.9 takedowns / 15 min 2.5
47% takedown accuracy 35%
75% takedown defence 52%
0.3 submissions / 15 min 1.1
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
RR Rising the Ranks picks Melquizael Costa VALUE “I gotta go with Melquizael Costa on this one”
CS CBS Sports picks Arnold Allen “I think it is and certainly from the standpoint of protecting both his reputation and his placement as an elite fighter”
CS CBS Sports picks Melquizael Costa “Milki Melquizael Costa has turned his fortunes in a big way”
MJ MMA Junkie picks Arnold Allen “I do give Arnold Allen the” $1.56
MM MMAFightingonSBN picks Arnold Allen “Arnold decision. I'm going Arnold decision.”
BM Bum MMA picks Arnold Allen “give me Arnold Allen via decision”
DS DFS Army - Daily Fantasy Sports picks Arnold Allen “I will pick Arnold Arnold Allen.” $1.80
UB UFC Brasil picks Arnold Allen “I'm taking Arnold Allen”
JA JakeGerberMMA picks Arnold Allen “I'm going Arnold Allen by decision”
RS Round 3: Prediction Show picks Arnold Allen “I'm going Arnold Allen by knockout.”
TC The Finz Chats picks Melquizael Costa VALUE “I'm going with Melquizael Costa moneyline, one unit at plus 112.” $2.12
PH Philyflishow999 picks Melquizael Costa “I feel like NOT_IN_ROSTER_1 just gets a big big W.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Allen20-4
W Costa Decision · R5 May '26
L Silva Decision · R3 Jan '26
W Chikadze Decision · R3 Jul '24
L Evloev Decision · R3 Jan '24
L Holloway Decision · R5 Apr '23
Costa26-7
L Allen Decision · R5 May '26
W Ige KO/TKO · R1 Feb '26
W Charrière KO/TKO · R1 Dec '25
W Erosa Decision · R3 May '25
W Rodriguez Decision · R3 Mar '25