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Doo-ho vs SantosMain Card · Featherweight
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Cuamba vs SopajMain Card · Bantamweight
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Tokkos vs ErslanPreliminary Card · Light Heavyweight
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BEST PRICE
Prophecy read
Allen v Costa
Featherweight
Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Tale of the tape
the matchup, side by side
Allen 20-4
VS
26-7 Costa
5'8"
height
5'10"
145 lb
weight
145 lb
70"
reach
71"
32
age
29
Southpaw
stance
Southpaw
3.5
strikes landed / min
3.5
41%
striking accuracy
46%
2.9
strikes absorbed / min
2.3
61%
striking defence
58%
0.9
takedowns / 15 min
2.5
47%
takedown accuracy
35%
75%
takedown defence
52%
0.3
submissions / 15 min
1.1
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
Recommendation
Locked our pick, the fair line & EV are Pro-only
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Analyst tape
every extracted call on this fight
RR
Rising the Ranks picks Melquizael Costa VALUE
“I gotta go with Melquizael Costa on this one”
CS
CBS Sports picks Arnold Allen
“I think it is and certainly from the standpoint of protecting both his reputation and his placement as an elite fighter”
CS
CBS Sports picks Melquizael Costa
“Milki Melquizael Costa has turned his fortunes in a big way”
MM
MMAFightingonSBN picks Arnold Allen
“Arnold decision. I'm going Arnold decision.”
BM
Bum MMA picks Arnold Allen
“give me Arnold Allen via decision”
UB
UFC Brasil picks Arnold Allen
“I'm taking Arnold Allen”
JA
JakeGerberMMA picks Arnold Allen
“I'm going Arnold Allen by decision”
RS
Round 3: Prediction Show picks Arnold Allen
“I'm going Arnold Allen by knockout.”
TC
The Finz Chats picks Melquizael Costa VALUE
“I'm going with Melquizael Costa moneyline, one unit at plus 112.”
$2.12
PH
Philyflishow999 picks Melquizael Costa
“I feel like NOT_IN_ROSTER_1 just gets a big big W.”
Recent form
last five, most recent first
Allen20-4
W
Costa
May '26
L
Silva
Jan '26
W
Chikadze
Jul '24
L
Evloev
Jan '24
L
Holloway
Apr '23
Costa26-7
L
Allen
May '26
W
Ige
Feb '26
W
Charrière
Dec '25
W
Erosa
May '25
W
Rodriguez
Mar '25