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UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
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BEST PRICE Prophecy read Carpenter v Ochoa Flyweight Edge lockedfair line · EV · value side
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Consensus96 picks · conf 83/99
Carpenter 23
73 Ochoa
MMKUMM pick Carpenter
Tale of the tape the matchup, side by side
Carpenter 8-2 VS 8-2 Ochoa
5'6" height 5'7"
126 lb weight 125 lb
66" reach 67"
30 age 25
Orthodox stance Southpaw
4.8 strikes landed / min 3.3
62% striking accuracy 31%
4.0 strikes absorbed / min 3.4
49% striking defence 59%
1.3 takedowns / 15 min 0.0
31% takedown accuracy 0%
50% takedown defence 100%
1.0 submissions / 15 min 1.0
The model read
Deep research · camps & rumours
AI deep research is Pro-onlyLive X + news scouting and the model’s written lean.
What the numbers say
Model vs market is Pro-onlyOur win probability, the 7-day line move and the sharpest method angle.
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Analyst tape every extracted call on this fight
IN InsomniaMMA picks Jose Ochoa “I'm just going to have to go with Jose AOA getting this fight done by decision.”
PI PickemMMA picks Jose Ochoa “I think Jose Ochoa should win this fight. I'm actually going to go Jose Ochoa still.”
DC Dougies Corner picks Jose Ochoa “he's not going to win. William loser versus Jose Ochoa.”
TP The MMA War Room Podcast picks Jose Ochoa “I'm gonna take him by decision”
KO Kyle OHare picks Jose Ochoa “I'm just going to take the favorite here. We're going to go with Jose Ochoa.”
WP We Want Picks picks Clayton Carpenter “I think Clayton Carpenter wins this fight.”
BM Bozing MMA picks Jose Ochoa “I'll go round two TKO for Jose Ochoa.”
UW Uncle Weezy picks Jose Ochoa “I like Jose Ochoa to win this fight and I'm picking him to win this fight by decision.”
RX RX picks Jose Ochoa “I'm going to go Jose Ochoa here. I just think he's better.”
AM Aniki MMA picks Jose Ochoa “I think I'm going to be picking Jose Ochoa to win this fight by 3027 decision”
TG The Fight Guy picks Clayton Carpenter “I'm gonna go with Clayton Carpenter to win this fight.”
RA Rafyyy picks Jose Ochoa “I'm going to stick to Jose Ochoa here.”
Recent form last five, most recent first
Carpenter8-2
L Ochoa Decision · R3 May '26
L Filho Submission · R1 Oct '25
L Ulanbekov Decision · R3 Jan '25
W Rocha Submission · R2 Oct '24
W Ronderos Submission · R1 Feb '23
Ochoa8-2
W Carpenter Decision · R3 May '26
W Durden KO/TKO · R2 Jun '25
L Kavanagh Decision · R3 Nov '24